Fig. 7: Decadal prediction of the storm erosivity index using the PARMAX(TVAR)-CSD model. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 7: Decadal prediction of the storm erosivity index using the PARMAX(TVAR)-CSD model.

From: Climate driven generative time-varying model for improved decadal storm power predictions in the Mediterranean

Fig. 7

a Temporal evolution of observed (1997−2022, blue line) and forecasted (2023−2060, orange line) AMESEI values, with a 5 year Gaussian filter (dark line). Light blue dots represent the annual areal mean of daily rainfall at the 99th percentile (data source: CMIP5 ACCESS1-0 RCP4.5 dataset, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; http://climexp.knmi.nl); (b) Smaller spatial-scale experiment with the PARMAX(TVAR)-CSD model; (c). Coevolution of AMESEI (orange line) and the annual areal mean of daily rainfall at the 99th percentile (blue line) showing the mean (bold horizontal grey line), and the 15th (yellow line, quiet storm) and 90th (orange line, storm erosivity exceedance) percentiles.

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