Fig. 2: Probability distributions of AMP4day over NCP and relative contributions of different components to its future change.

a Probability distribution of the normalized AMP4day (i.e., minus the mean and divided by the standard deviation) from the CESM-LENS output under different factual and counterfactual experiments. b Relative contribution of thermodynamic, dynamic, and their interaction to future AMP4day changes. The inset plot in a is zoomed section outlined by the dashed black box. The shade represents the uncertainty band (i.e., 25th–75th percentile) attributed to GEV fitting and sampling uncertainty (see the “Methods” section).