Fig. 3: Spatial and temporal rainfall patterns in the CTRL and PGW simulations.

Spatial patterns of storm total rainfall (shade, in mm) in a CTRL and b PGW simulations. c Time series of domain-average hourly rain rate (in mm/h) derived from simulations and rain gauge observations. These results are the ensemble mean of all six members. The dashed black lines represent the 200 and 400 m elevation contours over NCP. The thin gray lines represent provincial boundaries. The locations of four megacities (i.e., BJ—Beijing, BD—Baoding, SJ—Shijiazhuang, TJ—Tianjin) are shown in black circles. The gray dots highlight grids with statistically insignificant rainfall differences between the CTRL and PGW simulations (based on Student’s t-test, P > 0.01). The inset plots show averaged rainfall accumulation along different bands of elevation. The uncertainty bands in c highlight the full range of all six ensemble members.