Fig. 3: The trend in the stratospheric overturning circulation, 2005 to 2022.

The decadal trend in the strength of the stratospheric overturning circulation from 400 K to 1100 K (~18 km to 35 km in the tropics) according to linear regressions computed at each height from 2005 to 2022. The black line shows the median trend at each height, and the shading denotes the 1-sigma CI. Best fit trends and their uncertainties were computed for each of the 10,000 samples (see Methods), and each trend was then sampled independently 1000 times to create a distribution of possible trends according to both measurement and statistical uncertainties.