Fig. 1: Storyline attribution of the European heatwave 2022.
From: The concept of spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution
Left: The upper panel shows the 2 m temperatures [°C] (shaded) and present-day storyline geopotential height at 500hPa [m] (black contours) for July 2022. The lower panel shows the differences in 2 m temperature [°C] between the present-day and preindustrial simulations as shaded fields. Stippling indicates where all present-day ensemble members are > 0.1 °C above all preindustrial members for that grid point. Right: Daily mean 2m-temperature [°C] averaged over Europe (35–55°N, 10°W–25°E) for summer 2022 for the preindustrial (blue), present-day (red) and +2 °C (yellow) simulations and ERA5 (black stippled line) and NCEP (black solid line) reanalysis data. The climatology (grey shaded area) is the 5th–95th percentile range between 1985-2015 calculated with the general circulation model ECHAM16. Figure adapted from Feser et al.23.
