Fig. 4: The Bray–Curtis based models and coefficient estimates for the change in the similarity between replicates over time.

a The similarity between replicate communities as a function of time. The models for the replicate similarity change over time are presented as lines with the 0.5, 0.8, and 0.95 credible intervals around it. The observed data used as the response variable in the models are presented as points. UD (circles) were undisturbed the first 28 days and disturbed the last 22 days, while DU (triangles) were disturbed in the first period and undisturbed in the second. H (filled) and L (empty) indicates high and low carrying capacity, respectively. Colours represent the disturbance regime at sampling. b The posterior distributions of the expected replicate similarity (µ) change per day given the interaction between time, the disturbance regime and carrying capacity. The distribution reflects all 8000 estimated replicate similarity changes that would give the observed data. Light and dark colours indicate low and high carrying capacity, respectively. The colour indicates the disturbance regime at sampling. c The posterior distributions for the change in standard deviation per day given the interaction between time and disturbance regime. The distribution reflects all 8000 estimated standard deviation changes per day that would give the observed data. The colour indicates the disturbance regime at sampling.