Fig. 6: Validation of the immune response signature in a separate cohort.

The LPS + R848 model was validated on a separate cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients (n = 20, 5 in each peak severity group). a Sensitivity/recall, specificity, false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR), positive predictive value (PPV) /precision, negative predictive value (NPV), false discovery rate (FDR), false omission rate (FOR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and Mathew’s correlation coefficient (MCC) are presented for predicting severity grade 1 alone, grade 1–2, grade 3–4, and grade 4 alone. b Cytokine levels in response to LPS and R848 based on baseline data from the validation cohort (n = 20). Patients are grouped based on future peak severity: Grade 1 (n = 5, green), Grade 2 (n = 5, yellow), Grade 3 (n = 5, orange), Grade 4 (n = 5, red). Box edges represent the 25^th and 75^th percentiles, and whiskers extend towards the most extreme values but no further than ± 1.5 times the interquartile range from the hinge. Hollow dots beyond whiskers represent outliers. Solid dots represent individual measurements. Blue shaded areas represent the normal reference interval. Cytokine concentration levels and immune cell subset counts are presented on a log₁₀ y-axis. LPS lipopolysaccharide, R848 resiquimod, IFN interferon, IL interleukin, TNF tumor necrosis factor, L O2 liters/minute of oxygen supply, ICU intensive care unit.