Fig. 2: Evaluation of the forecast performance.
From: Supporting COVID-19 policy-making with a predictive epidemiological multi-model warning system
Daily new confirmed cases and estimated Reff9 (top panel) and forecasting performance (relative difference, bottom panel) of the individual models and the harmonized mean are shown for 72 forecasts. Weeks in which the forecasts substantially underestimated the actual case numbers (vertical dotted lines) tend to coincide with steep increases in Reff. The underlying data is found in Supplementary Data 2.
