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Global, regional and national trends in suicide mortality rates across 102 countries from 1990 to 2021 with projections up to 2050

Nature Mental Health volume 3, pages 991–1001 (2025)Cite this article

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Abstract

Global trends and future projections of suicide mortality are crucial to providing policy decision-makers with insights into estimating the global and future burden of suicide; however, they require techniques accounting for the effects of age, period and cohort on trends in suicide mortality and considering various factors such as population growth and aging. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global trends in suicide mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 and the future projection of suicide deaths until 2050 across 102 countries. Global trends were calculated using a locally weighted scatter-plot smoother (LOESS) curve, and the association between the rates and socioeconomic and geographical indicators was investigated. The study also projected future suicide mortality rates up to 2050 using the Bayesian age–period–cohort model. In addition, a decomposition analysis was performed to identify the variations in suicide deaths, specifically examining factors such as population growth, aging and epidemiological changes. Of the 102 countries included in the analysis of suicide mortality, 54 were high-income countries (HICs) and 48 were low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The LOESS estimate of the global suicide mortality rate decreased from 10.33 (95% confidence interval, 9.67–10.99) deaths per 100,000 people in 1990 to 7.24 (6.58–7.90) deaths per 100,000 people in 2021. Notably, overall global suicide mortality rates were higher among males compared with females, with males showing a decline from 16.41 (15.23–17.58) in 1990 to 11.51 (10.33–12.68) in 2021, and females from 4.65 (4.41–4.89) in 1990 to 3.22 (2.98–3.46) in 2021. In addition, HICs also had higher suicide mortality rates, from 12.68 (11.96–13.40) in 1990 to 8.61 (7.89–9.33) in 2021, compared with LMICs, which showed 7.88 (6.93–8.84) in 1990 and 5.73 (4.77–6.69) in 2021. We also identified an association between the age-standardized suicide rates and several parameters, including the Human Development Index (β, 24.250; P = 0.001), Sociodemographic Index (β, 0.091; P < 0.001), reverse Gender Gap Index (β, −39.913; P = 0.002), Gender Inequality Index (β, 13.229; P = 0.016) and latitude (β, 23.732; P < 0.001). The future predicted number of global suicide deaths up to 2050 would slightly decrease from 8.60 (95% credible interval, 8.40–8.83) deaths in 2021 to 8.42 (6.60–10.61) in 2030, 7.39 (4.25–13.17) in 2040 and 6.49 (2.19–17.57) in 2050. Although population growth and aging had contributed to an increase in the number of deaths, the overall count in 2021 had decreased compared with 1990, primarily due to the decline in the age-standardized suicide mortality rates. A global trend for a decrease in suicide mortality rate was observed from 1990 to 2021. Reflecting the overall decline, future suicide deaths are forecasted to decrease up to 2050 at the global level, with certain groups and countries remaining more vulnerable to suicide deaths. Therefore, these findings suggest the need for more effective strategies and policies to reduce suicide mortality.

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Fig. 1: Global, HICs and LMICs age-standardized suicide mortality rates among 102 countries, for the years 1990–2021.
Fig. 2: Age-standardized suicide mortality rates for the global population by sex and continent among 77 countries, 1990–2021.
Fig. 3: LOESS-smoothed suicide mortality rates by sex and age group among 102 countries, 1990–2021.
Fig. 4: Association between age-standardized suicide mortality rates and HDI, SDI, rGGI, latitude and GII.
Fig. 5: Projected trends in suicide mortality and decomposition of contributing factors, 1990–2050.

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Data availability

The data used in this study are publicly available from the WHO mortality database and can be directly downloaded from the following link: https://www.who.int/data/data-collection-tools/who-mortality-database.

Code availability

All code used for this analysis is publicly available online via GitHub at https://github.com/CenterForDH/WHO_suicide.git. The statistical code is available from D.K.Y.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (RS-2024–00460379 to S.W.) and an Institute of Information & Communications Technology Planning & Evaluation (IITP) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024–00509257, Global AI Frontier Lab to D.K.Y.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation or writing of the report.

Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors jointly supervised this work: Hyeon Jin Kim, Jiseung Kang, Dong Keon Yon.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Digital Health, Medical Science Research Institute, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea

    Soeun Kim, Selin Woo, Hyeri Lee, Jaeyu Park, Hayeon Lee, Hyeon Jin Kim & Dong Keon Yon

  2. Department of Precision Medicine, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea

    Soeun Kim, Jaeyu Park, Hyeon Jin Kim & Dong Keon Yon

  3. Department of Psychiatry, Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea

    Namwoo Kim

  4. Department of Regulatory Science, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea

    Hyeri Lee & Dong Keon Yon

  5. Department of Biomedical Science and Engineering, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Gwangju, South Korea

    Tae Kim

  6. CEReSS Health Service Research and Quality of Life Center, Assistance Publique–Hôpitaux de Marseille, Aix-Marseille University, Marseille, France

    Guillaume Fond, Laurent Boyer & Masoud Rahmati

  7. Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Lorestan University, Khoramabad, Iran

    Masoud Rahmati

  8. Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Vali-E-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan, Iran

    Masoud Rahmati

  9. Centre for Health, Performance and Wellbeing, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge, UK

    Lee Smith

  10. Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Biruni University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Lee Smith

  11. Division of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain

    Guillermo F. López Sánchez

  12. Research Laboratory Psychology of Patients, Families, and Health Professionals, Department of Nursing, School of Health Sciences, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece

    Elena Dragioti

  13. Mass General Brigham Department of Anesthesiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

    Christa J. Nehs & Jiseung Kang

  14. Division of Sleep Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

    Christa J. Nehs & Jiseung Kang

  15. Department of Biomedical Engineering, Kyung Hee University College of Electronics and Information, Yongin, South Korea

    Jinseok Lee & Hayeon Lee

  16. Department of Electronics and Information Convergence Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, South Korea

    Jinseok Lee & Hayeon Lee

  17. School of Health and Environmental Science, Korea University College of Health Science, Seoul, South Korea

    Jiseung Kang

  18. Department of Health and Safety Convergence Science, Korea University Graduate School, Seoul, South Korea

    Jiseung Kang

  19. Department of Pediatrics, Kyung Hee University Medical Center, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea

    Dong Keon Yon

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Contributions

D.K.Y. had full access to all of the data in the study and took responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. All authors approved the final version before submission. Study concept and design, S.K., S.W., N.K., H.J.K., J.K. and D.K.Y.; acquisition, analysis or interpretation of data, S.K., S.W., N.K., H.J.K., J.K. and D.K.Y.; drafting of the manuscript, S.K., S.W., N.K., H.J.K., J.K. and D.K.Y.; critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content, S.K., S.W., N.K., Hyeri Lee, J.P., T.K., G.F., L.B., M.R., L.S., G.F.L.S., E.D., C.J.N., J.L., Hayeon Lee, H.J.K., J.K. and D.K.Y.; statistical analysis, S.K., S.W., N.K., H.J.K., J.K. and D.K.Y.; study supervision, J.K., H.J.K. and D.K.Y. D.K.Y. supervised the study and is the guarantor for this study. S.K., S.W. and N.K. contributed as first authors. D.K.Y. is the senior author. The corresponding authors attest that all listed authors meet authorship criteria and that no others meeting the criteria have been omitted. The lead authors (S.K., S.W., N.K., H.J.K., J.K. and D.K.Y.) affirm that the manuscript is an honest, accurate and transparent account of the study being reported, that no important aspects of the study have been omitted and that any discrepancies from the study as planned (and, if relevant, registered) have been explained.

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Correspondence to Hyeon Jin Kim, Jiseung Kang or Dong Keon Yon.

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Kim, S., Woo, S., Kim, N. et al. Global, regional and national trends in suicide mortality rates across 102 countries from 1990 to 2021 with projections up to 2050. Nat. Mental Health 3, 991–1001 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44220-025-00474-8

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