Fig. 2: Percentage of global ice-free land area with local deviations.

a,b, For streamflow (a) and soil moisture (b), the annual percentage is shown, which is computed as an average of monthly percentages. The annotated years mark the 10-year moving (trailing) mean transgressing the upper end of pre-industrial variability (95th percentile of the pre-industrial percentage of land area with local deviations; Fig. 1d). The ensemble median and interquartile range are computed from n = 23 (streamflow) and n = 15 (soil moisture) ensemble members. Values before 1691 are excluded and the ensemble median line for 1861–1890 is shaded and dashed due to traces of model spinups being common during these years (Methods).