Fig. 3: Statistically significant increases in dry and wet local deviation frequency.

a,b, For streamflow (a) and soil moisture (b), changes in the frequency of local deviations are computed by comparing the ensemble median frequency of local deviations during 1976–2005 against 1691–1860, and significance of change is tested at a 95% confidence level (P = 0.05) with R package stats function prop.test⁹⁶ (one-sided test). Colours denoted with ‘+‘ indicate statistically significant increases with magnitude ≤5 p.p. (minor), whereas colours denoted with ‘++’ indicate statistically significant increases with magnitude >5 p.p. (major). Colours denoted with ‘+(+)’ pool together any statistically significant increase (minor or major).