Extended Data Fig. 1: Percentage of global ice-free land area with local deviations, separately for summed, wet and dry deviations.

Panels show the percentage of land area with local streamflow (a–c) and soil moisture (d–f) deviations, dry and wet local deviations summed (a, d), and for wet (b, e) and dry (c, f) local deviations separately. Shown is the annual percentage, which is computed as an average of monthly percentages. The annotated years mark the 10-year moving (trailing) mean transgressing the upper end of pre-industrial variability (95th percentile of the pre-industrial percentage of land area with local deviations; Fig. 1d). The ensemble median and interquartile range are computed from n = 23 (streamflow) and n = 15 (soil moisture) ensemble members. Values prior to 1691 are excluded and the ensemble median line for 1861–1890 is shaded and dashed due to traces of model spinups being common during these years (Methods). It should be noted that the ensemble median percentages for summed deviations (a, d) do not correspond to the sum of ensemble median percentages for dry and wet deviations (b–c, e–f). This is because ensemble medians are taken individually for each panel, that is, for panels a and d, land areas with dry and wet local deviations are first summed for each ensemble member and then the ensemble median is taken.