Extended Data Fig. 2: Percentage of global ice-free land area with local deviations, using variable bounds of the local baseline range.

Panels show the percentage of land area with local deviations (Fig. 1c) when the local baseline range (Fig. 1a) is defined as the 5th–95th (a, b), 2.5th–97.5th (c, d) or 1st–99th (e, f) percentile range. Panels a–b correspond to Fig. 2a, b and Extended Data Fig. 1a, d. Shown is the annual percentage, which is computed as an average of monthly percentages. The ensemble median (solid black line) and interquartile range (grey shading) are computed from n = 23 (streamflow) and n = 15 (soil moisture) ensemble members. The horizontal dashed lines drawn in each panel denote the median and the upper end of pre-industrial variability (Fig. 1d), and the current (mean of 1996–2005) percentage of land area with local deviations is annotated at the end of the red 10-year moving (trailing) mean line. Values prior to 1691 are excluded and the ensemble median line for 1861–1890 is shaded and dashed due to traces of model spinups being common during these years (Methods).