Extended Data Fig. 3: Percentage of global ice-free land area with local streamflow deviations, separately for global hydrological models (GHMs) included in this study.

Panels show the percentage of land area with local deviations (Fig. 1c) for H08 (a), LPJmL (b), MATSIRO (c), MPI-HM (d), PCR-GLOBWB (e), and WaterGAP2 (f). Shown is the annual percentage, which is computed as an average of monthly percentages. The ensemble median (solid black line) and interquartile range (grey shading) are computed from n = 3–4 ensemble members (number of GCMs), as data forced with HadGEM2 were not available for MPI-HM. The horizontal dashed lines drawn in each panel denote the median and the upper end of pre-industrial variability (Fig. 1d), and the current (mean of 1996–2005) percentage of land area with local deviations is annotated at the end of the red 10-year moving (trailing) mean line. The ensemble median line for 1861–1890 is shaded and dashed due to traces of model spinups being common during these years (Methods).