Table 5 Scenario hypotheses and evolution of input variables in four possible scenarios for the Belgian livestock sector in 2050, in comparison with the current situation (2018–2022)
From: Narratives, trade-offs and scenarios to explore the livestock transition in Belgium
Scenario variables | BAU 2050 | T1 2050 Land sharing | T2 2050 Land sparing - No Soy | T3 2050 Radical - No feed for food |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Livestock populationsa | ||||
Suckler cows | –26% | –50% | –100% | –100% |
Dairy cows | +7% | –30% | +22% | +14% |
Pigs | –30% | –30% | –74% | –91% |
Broilers | +55% | –30% | –75% | –89% |
Laying hens | +17% | –30% | –76% | –89% |
Shares farming systemsb | ||||
Organic | 5% FL & 30% WAL | 25% | 30% | 100% |
Extensive | Follows trends | Follows trends | 70% | — |
Others | Follows trends | Follows trends | — | — |
Reconfiguration of agricultural areac | ||||
Agricultural land set aside for biodiversity | 0% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
Optimisation of technical parametersd | ||||
Dairy yields | +10% | +10% | +10% | +10% |
Feed conversion ratio - pigs and broilers | –10% | –10% | –10% | –10% |
Enteric fermentation – cattle and pigs | –10% | –10% | –10% | –10% |
Manure management | –15% | –15% | –15% | –15% |
Diets and consumption patternse | ||||
Diets considered | Current Belgian diet | TYFA diet | Belgian FBDG | EAT-Lancet diet |
