Fig. 1: Overview of the method.
From: Combining electrification and alternative fuels: an effective strategy to decarbonize the car sector
Projected EV sales shares in three scenarios by IEA (Stated policies, Sustainable Development Scenario, Net Zero by 2050) are split into developed and emerging countries with data from Bloomberg and fit to historical data on a country basis to represent different speeds of transition. The lifetime of vehicles in the fleet of each country is varied to find the most suitable value to represent the projected fleet size over time, enabling to identify the number of newly registered cars and hence the fleet composition in each country in every year for each scenario. Well-to-wheel emissions of EVs and ICEs are derived from the projected grid mix in each scenario combined with data for battery and vehicle production and assumptions about consumption of electricity and fuel.
