Fig. 5: Total cumulative emissions from the car transport sector until the end of the century for a reduced growth rate relative to the EIA projection.
From: Combining electrification and alternative fuels: an effective strategy to decarbonize the car sector
Most of the total growth is expected in emerging countries, while the fleet remains almost constant in developed countries. As the EV sales share in emerging countries is projected to be lower than in developed countries, this measure would effectively prevent the sales of mostly ICEs and therefore reduce emissions. A reduced growth rate would, mainly impact emerging economies and is therefore seen as critical.
