Figure 2
From: Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century
Projected change in Mediterranean climate over the Euro-Mediterranean domain.
(a) The shaded areas represent the 2070–2100 vs. 1979–2005 probability change in Mediterranean climate. Only the probability changes that passed a Monte Carlo significance test at the 5% level are shown. For each probability change value, the markers indicate the dominant climate-type transition (relative majority) between warm temperate to Mediterranean (Warm Temp. to MED; crosses), Mediterranean to arid (MED to ARID; circles) and snow to Mediterranean (SNOW to MED; triangles) climate. The markers are bold when the dominant transition occurs in at least 95% of the models that change from one climate type in 1979–2005 to another one in 2070–2100. The dashed line marks the 0.5 contour of PMED during the reference period (1979–2005). (b) Zonally integrated land area change over the longitude domain displayed in panel a (in units of 104 Km2 per degree latitude). Shading indicates the uncertainty for each latitude band estimated by the 10th and 90th percentiles of the synthetic distribution obtained by resampling the multi-model members through a Monte Carlo bootstrap (1000 repetitions) procedure. (c) The 30-years running mean time series of the land area change contributions integrated over the whole Euro-Mediterranean domain displayed in panel a. The map in this figure was drawn using Matlab.
