Table 1 Overall climate suitability loss for all, rainforest and open-habitat palms.

From: Global-change vulnerability of a key plant resource, the African palms

Palm groups

2020

2050

2080

−CO2

+CO2

−CO2

+CO2

−CO2

+CO2

All

55.42 (±14.50)

53.92 (±15.11)

64.59 (±14.71)

62.17 (±15.63)

73.93 (±13.07)

71.24 (±14.33)

19.10 (±30.36)

16.89 (±31.06)

31.60 (±31.79)

28.07 (±32.61)

45.86 (±30.69)

41.66 (±32.18)

Rainforest

54.19 (±13.27)

52.56 (±13.75)

64.17 (±14.02)

61.54 (±15.05)

74.36 (±12.37)

71.48 (±13.72)

20.17 (±21.55)

17.81 (±21.83)

34.38 (±23.80)

30.55 (±24.61)

49.80 (±22.86)

45.39 (±24.31)

Open-habitat

58.05 (±18.57)

56.81 (±19.45)

66.06 (±17.99)

64.05 (±18.78)

73.74 (±16.15)

71.53 (±17.42)

17.19 (±48.55)

15.40 (±49.92)

26.69 (±48.74)

23.95 (±49.90)

38.41 (±46.48)

35.00 (±48.55)

  1. Group average (±standard deviation) of the proportion (%) of climate suitability loss for all palms, rainforest palms and open-habitat palms: For each palm group two values are given: (1) (top row per group) proportion of climate suitability loss within current predicted ranges and (2) (bottom row per group) overall climate suitability loss (%) when allowing for colonisation within the 100-km margin surrounding the predicted current range for three time intervals and two CO2 scenarios (see Methods) in the 21st-century. The latter was computed as the number of cells losing climate suitability within the predicted current range of palms minus the number of cells gaining climate suitability within the 100-km margin of a given species out of the total number of cells in a given species’ predicted current range All values were computed as arithmetic means across all model combinations of two species distribution model algorithms, three global circulation models and three gas emissions. Values generally referred to in the text are for the +CO2 scenario projected for 2080 which is here marked in bold.
Back to article page