Table 3 MAPE(%) of query-only and autoregressive (2-week lag) nowcasts during the peaking weeks of each flu period.
From: Advances in nowcasting influenza-like illness rates using search query logs
Period | #of weeks | θ | MAPE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GFT | ElasticNet | GP | AR + GFT | AR + ElasticNet | AR + GP | |||
2008–09 | 7 | 2.47% | 17.3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | — | — | — |
2009–10 | 9 | 4.21% | 7.8 | 29.9 | 24.7 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 6.3 |
2010–11 | 8 | 3.11% | 30.7 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 15.4 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
2011–12 | 8 | 1.93% | 55.2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 7.3 |
2012–13 | 10 | 3.26% | 16.1 | 24.0 | 12.3 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 9.9 |
2008(9)–13 | 42 (35) | NA | 24.8 | 15.8 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 7.5 |
