Table 1 Serocatalytic model parameter estimates.

From: Antibody acquisition models: A new tool for serological surveillance of malaria transmission intensity

Antigen

Model

λ 0

γ

ρ

t c

Log- likelihood

AIC

AMA-1_3D7

M1

0.17 (0.16, 0.22)

–

0.0 (0.0, 0.02)

–

−65.74

135.48

M2

0.32 (0.26, 0.44)

0.35 (0.26, 0.46)

0.003 (0.0, 0.015)

1999 (1997, 2001)

−31.59

71.19

M3

0.51 (0.39, 0.69)

0.11 (0.04, 0.21)

0.004 (0.0, 0.016)

–

−34.92

75.85

AMA-1_FVO

M1

0.20 (0.18, 0.24)

–

0.0 (0.0, 0.01)

–

−60.30

124.60

M2

0.34 (0.29, 0.43)

0.39 (0.29, 0.52)

0.003 (0.0, 0.013)

1999 (1997, 2001)

−33.48

74.96

M3

0.53 (0.41, 0.74)

0.14 (0.06, 0.27)

0.004 (0.0, 0.015)

–

−36.11

78.23

MSP-119

M1

0.25 (0.19, 0.34)

–

0.045 (0.02, 0.08)

–

−42.20

88.41

M2

0.36 (0.26, 0.56)

0.33 (0.26, 0.73)

0.06 (0.03, 0.10)

2007 (1997, 2009)

−35.53

79.07

M3

0.50 (0.31, 0.91)

0.35 (0.17, 0.66)

0.05 (0.03, 0.09)

–

−36.88

79.77

MSP-2_Dd2

M1

0.19 (0.17, 0.22)

–

0.0 (0.0, 0.01)

–

−38.87

81.75

M2

0.26 (0.21, 0.41)

0.56 (0.31, 0.75)

0.0 (0.0, 0.01)

1997 (1994, 2006)

−29.60

67.20

M3

0.35 (0.26, 0.51)

0.34 (0.18, 0.57)

0.002 (0.0, 0.016)

 

−29.81

65.62

MSP-2_CH150/9

M1

0.24 (0.21, 0.31)

–

0.007 (0.0, 0.02)

–

−48.32

100.65

M2

0.43 (0.29, 0.64)

0.28 (0.14, 0.60)

0.016 (0.0, 0.03)

2004 (1997, 2006)

−31.52

71.04

M3

0.64 (0.44, 1.06)

0.17 (0.07, 0.34)

0.011 (0.0, 0.027)

–

−31.74

69.49

MSP-3_3D7

M1

0.26 (0.18, 0.45)

–

0.14 (0.08, 0.28)

–

−85.19

174.39

M2

0.62 (0.31, 2.69)

0.24 (0.04, 0.34)

0.16 (0.06, 0.61)

1999 (1996, 2008)

−43.31

94.62

M3

2.15 (1.06, 8.44)

0.05 (0.01, 0.11)

0.26 (0.15, 0.70)

–

−44.24

94.48

MSP-3_K1

M1

0.07 (0.06, 0.12)

–

0.02 (0.0, 0.09)

–

−94.18

192.37

M2

0.16 (0.11, 0.26)

0.21 (0.14, 0.29)

0.03 (0.0, 0.06)

1998 (1996, 1999)

−51.26

86.50

M3

0.25 (0.16, 0.41)

0.04 (0.0, 0.11)

0.04 (0.01, 0.09)

–

−48.16

102.32

gSG6

M1

0.14 (0.06, 4.18)

–

0.32 (0.12, 10.0)

–

−56.82

117.64

M2

0.24 (0.11, 3.52)

0.22 (0.01, 0.46)

0.34 (0.15, 1.68)

2006 (1996, 2009)

−37.68

83.36

M3

0.47 (0.21, 4.33)

0.11 (0.04, 0.23)

0.35 (0.17, 4.10)

–

−38.03

82.07

  1. Maximum likelihood parameter estimates and 95% confidence intervals for serocatalytic models fitted to cross-sectional age-specific seropositivity data. λ0 is the seroconversion rate, γ (=λc/λ0) is the reduction in transmission, ρ is the seroreversion rate, tc is the estimated time-point (calendar-year) of drop in transmission, log-likelihood is the maximised log-likelihood of the model and AIC is the Akaike Information Criterion value. A bold font indicates the smallest AIC for each of the antigens. Confidence Intervals were defined using profile-likelihood methods.
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