Table 1 Median predicted proportion of cattle vaccinated during mass FMD vaccination in Turkey [with 95% PI in brackets], allowing for incomplete coverage of eligible cattle assessed six months after the last round of vaccination ** .

From: Mass vaccination, immunity and coverage: modelling population protection against foot-and-mouth disease in Turkish cattle

Number of doses

0

1

2

≥3

Total

Evaluated 25th Sept 2012

Months since last vaccination

Unvaccinated

22% [21.9–22.2]

0%

0%

0%

22% [21.9–22.2%]

6

0%

10.4% [10.4–10.5]

13.1% [13.1–13.15]

39.4% [39.2–39.6]

62.9% [62.7–63.1]

12

0%

3.19% [3.18–3.2]

1.87% [1.8–1.9]

6.7% [6.6–6.8]

11.8% [11.6–11.9]

≥18

0%

0.77% [0.75–0.79]

0.7% [0.7–0.7]

1.85% [1.7–1.9]

3.3% [3.1–3.4]

Age [months]

<6

13.1% [12.9–13.2]

0%

0%

0%

13.1% [12.9–13.2]

6 -<12

6.8% [6.7–6.9]

4.4% [4.3–4.5]

0%

0%

11.2% [11.1–11.4]

12 -<18

1.5% [1.4–1.6]

6.1% [6–6.3]

6.1% [6–6.2]

0%

13.7% [13.6–13.9]

18 -<24

0.5% [0.5–0.6]

2.8% [2.7–2.9]

6% [5.9–6.1]

3% [2.9–3.1]

12.3% [12.2–12.5]

≥24

0.1% [0.1–0.2]

1% [0.9–1.1]

3.5% [3.4–3.6]

44.9% [44.8–45]

49.6%*

Total

22% [21.9–22.2]

14.5% [14.4–14.6]

15.6% [15.5–15.7]

47.9% [47.8–48.1]

100%

If all eligible cattle always vaccinated

18.5% [18.4–18.6]

81.5% [81.4–81.6]

72.1% [72–72.2]

55.9% [55.7–56]

Eligible that day 96.6% [96.596.65]

Evaluated 25th March 2013

Months since last vaccination

Unvaccinated

20% [19.8–20.2]

0%

0%

0%

20% [19.8–20.2]

6

0%

14.4% [14.2–14.6]

10.3% [10.2–10.5]

41.3% [41.1–41.5]

66% [65.8–66.3]

12

0%

2.4% [2.3–2.4]

2.4% [2.3–2.4]

6.7% [6.5–6.7]

11.4% [11.2–11.6]

≥18

0%

0.7% [0.7–0.8]

0.4% [0.4–0.45]

1.4% [1.4–1.5]

2.6% [2.5–2.7]

Age [months]

<6

11.2% [11–11.3]

0%

0%

0%

11.2% [11–11.3]

6 -<12

5.6% [5.5–5.7]

7.5% [7.4–7.7

0%

0%

13.2% [13–13.3]

12 -<18

1.8% [1.7–1.8]

6.6% [6.5–6.7]

3.8% [3.7–3.9]

0%

12.1% [12–12.3]

18 -<24

0.4% [0.4–0.5]

2.5% [2.5–2.6]

5.9% [5.8–6]

5% [4.9–5.1]

13.9% [13.8–14]

≥24

0.1% [0.1–0.2]

1.1% [1–1.1]

3.6% [3.5–3.7]

44.8% [44.7–44.9]

49.6*

Total

20% [19.8–20.2]

17.7% [17.5–17.9]

13.3% [13.2–13.5]

49.8% [49.7–50]

100%

If all eligible cattle always vaccinated

14.5% [14.4–14.6]

85.5% [85.4–85.6]

69.9% [69.8–70]

60% [59.8–60.1]

Eligible that day 94.7% [94.694.8]

  1. Autumn revaccination (25th September 2012) would vaccinate 74.5% [95% PI: 74.3–74.8%] of eligible cattle, spring revaccination (25th March 2013) would vaccinate 73.2% [95% PI: 73–73.4%] of eligible cattle. The median total does not necessarily equal the total of the subcategory medians. This, along with rounding, resulted in minor discrepancies with margin totals.
  2. *Fixed sampling proportion used from census data.
  3. **District level coverage was described by a Betapert distribution (minimum = 40%, maximum = 100%, most likely = 80%).
  4. i.e. Assessed on day of autumn 2012 vaccination BEFORE vaccination performed.
  5. i.e. Assessed on day of spring 2013 vaccination BEFORE vaccination performed.