Table 2 Regression coefficients from the two-step regression modelling process used to predict post-vaccination SP titre of cattle fitted to data from a prospective field study in Turkey (October 2012–March 2013)8.

From: Mass vaccination, immunity and coverage: modelling population protection against foot-and-mouth disease in Turkish cattle

Regression model

Parameter

Serotype O

Serotype A

Serotype Asia-1

Coefficient [95% CI]

P

Coefficient [95% CI]

P

Coefficient [95% CI]

P

Step 1: (Logistic) Titre ≥1:32 n = 1045

Intercept [vaccinated with single dose]

2.1 [1.8–2.5]

<0.001

0.6 [0.3–0.8]

<0.001

2.3 [1.9–2.7]

<0.001

Prior vaccination [effect per dose 0-≥2]

0.5 [0.09–0.9]

0.02

0.4 [0.1–0.7]

0.009

0.2 [−0.2–0.6]

0.4

Time since last vaccination [effect per day]

−0.01 [−0.02 to −0.01]

<0.001

−0.006 [−0.009 to −0.003]

<0.001

−0.01 [−0.02 to −0.007]

<0.001

Two-dose primary course given

1.4 [0.8–2]

<0.001

1.2 [0.9–1.6]

<0.001

1.3 [0.7–1.8]

<0.001

Step 2: (Linear) Log10(SP titre)

Intercept [vaccinated with single dose]

2.25 [2.2–2.3]

<0.001

2.1 [2–2.2]

<0.001

2.3 [2.25–2.4]

<0.001

Prior vaccination [effect per dose 0-≥2]

0.06 [0.01–0.1]

0.02

0.05 [−0.001–0.1]

0.08

0.06 [0.02–0.1]

0.007

Time since last vaccination [effect per day] *

−0.001 [−0.002 to −0.0006]

<0.001

−0.0005 [−0.001 to 0.0003]

0.2

−0.002 [−0.003 to −0.001]

<0.001

Two-dose primary course given

0.2 [0.14–0.26]

<0.001

0.11 [0.06–0.17]

<0.001

0.17 [0.1–0.2]

<0.001

n [excludes cattle with titre <1:32]

843

 

638

 

887

 
  1. All unvaccinated cattle were given a zero titre. In step one, vaccinated cattle were assessed for their likelihood of having a detectable titre (≥1:32) using a GEE model with a logistic link function (log Odds Ratios are reported). In step two, the Log10(SP titre) was modelled in cattle with titres ≥1:32 using interval linear regression to allow for censoring in the data. 95% confidence intervals [95% CI] are reported calculated from robust standard errors, allowing for repeat sampling of individual cattle.
  2. Unvaccinated cattle were given a titre of zero.
  3. *An exponential decay function, as Log10(SP titre) is modelled.
  4. Age was excluded as it was collinear with number of prior vaccine doses.