Table 3 Median predicted proportion of the Turkish cattle population with an FMD Log10(Sp titre) of <2 and zero (below 1:32 dilution detection threshold), stratified by age [95% PI in brackets].

From: Mass vaccination, immunity and coverage: modelling population protection against foot-and-mouth disease in Turkish cattle

Serotype

Log10 SP titre

Age [months]

October

February

One-dose primary

One-dose primary

Two-dose primary

O

<2

<6

72% [69–73]

100% [100–100]

100% [100–100]

6 -<18

45% [42–48]

76% [71–80]

51% [47–56]

18 -<24

38% [33–44]

63% [55–71]

57% [48–67]

≥24

34% [28–42]

59% [48–69]

58% [48–69]

Total

42% [38–47]

68% [60–75]

60% [53–68]

0

<6

62% [60–63]

100% [100–100]

100% [100–100]

6 -<18

28% [26–31]

58% [52–65]

38% [33–43]

18 -<24

22% [18–27]

44% [35–54]

38% [27–51]

≥24

19% [13–26]

39% [27–52]

38% [26–52]

Total

27% [23–31]

51% [43–59]

44% [35–54]

A

<2

<6

84% [83–86]

100% [100–100]

100% [100–100]

6 -<18

64% [60–68]

81% [76–85]

63% [58–68]

18 -<24

55% [48–63]

70% [60–78]

64% [53–74]

≥24

51% [41–61]

65% [52–76]

64% [52–75]

Total

59% [52–67]

73% [65–80]

68% [58–68]

0

<6

73% [71–76]

100% [100–100]

100% [100–100]

6 -<18

45% [41–49]

66% [60–71]

46% [41–51]

18 -<24

35% [28–44]

51% [40–62]

44% [32–58]

≥24

30% [22–42]

45% [31–59]

44% [30–59]

Total

40% [34–47]

56% [47–66]

50% [40–61]

Asia-1

<2

<6

69% [67–71]

100% [100–100]

100% [100–100]

6 -<18

42% [39–46]

74% [69–79]

53% [49–58]

18 -<24

37% [32–44]

66% [58–74]

62% [52–71]

≥24

35% [29–43]

63% [52–73]

63% [52–73]

Total

41% [37–47]

70% [62–76]

64% [56–71]

0

<6

60% [59–62]

100% [100–100]

100% [100–100]

6 -<18

26% [24–29]

49% [43–56]

36% [31–41]

18 -<24

22% [17–29]

41% [30–52]

38% [25–52]

≥24

20% [14–20]

39% [25–54]

39% [25–54]

Total

27% [23–33]

48% [38–58]

44% [33–54]

  1. Estimates are made for one month after autumn vaccination (October) and one month before revaccination (February). Antibody levels in February were assessed with and without the routine use of a two-dose primary vaccination course (labelled “Two-dose”, and “One-dose” respectively). See table S1 for age distributions.