Figure 3: HW likelihood. | Scientific Reports

Figure 3: HW likelihood.

From: On the use of composite analyses to form physical hypotheses: An example from heat wave – SST associations

Figure 3

Percentage ratio of HW days compared to total DJF days during which the pattern correlation between the Perth HW SST composite (Fig. 2) and daily SST anomalies falls within each 0.1 correlation bin, for the (a) SH, (b) SIO, (c) SIO-West pole, (d) SIO-East pole, and (e) SIO-two poles domains. The black curve shows the ratio calculated with daily SST anomalies from ERA-Interim (see values in Table 1). The pattern correlation is also calculated with daily SST anomalies from each CMIP5 model, and the red curve shows the multi-model mean (MMM) ratio. The dark (light) pink shading illustrates the ± 1 standard deviation (minimum and maximum) for all model ratios, with maximum values printed when exceeding 12%. Note that the values of some ratios for small domains can be misleading, e.g. the 100% ratio for observations over the SIO-East pole domain (d), is due to only one day with a high pattern correlation (>0.8) being a HW day (see Table 1).

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