Table 3 Model performance for 1 week (top) and 2 week estimates (bottom), as assessed by Mean Square Error of Prediction.

From: Disease surveillance based on Internet-based linear models: an Australian case study of previously unmodeled infection diseases

1 Week estimate

 

52RC

52WC

52RS

52WS

104RC

104WC

104RS

104WS

156RC

156WC

156RS

156WS

Gonococcal infection

1.183

1.237

1.212

1.229

1.181

1.301

1.274

1.368

1.268

1.340

1.356

1.358

Varicella zoster (Shingles)

0.970

1.105

0.840

0.850

0.907

0.964

0.946

0.937

0.954

1.008

0.967

0.976

Pneumococcal disease (invasive)

0.478

0.510

0.523

0.548

0.278

0.347

0.564

0.376

0.420

0.396

0.435

0.437

Ross River virus infection

0.394

0.542

0.465

0.514

0.365

0.537

0.351

0.478

0.289

0.288

0.290

0.288

Pertussis

1.418

1.394

1.447

1.416

2.053

1.659

2.206

2.118

2.299

2.265

2.240

2.189

Chlamydial infection

1.089

1.019

0.983

0.968

0.832

0.789

0.832

0.789

0.847

0.826

0.847

0.826

Varicella zoster (unspecified)

0.771

0.764

0.830

0.845

0.892

0.942

0.883

0.909

0.994

0.957

1.014

1.014

Varicella zoster (Chickenpox)

0.862

0.879

0.746

0.758

0.773

0.805

0.760

0.760

0.875

0.926

0.884

0.861

Cryptosporidiosis

  

1.031

1.050

  

1.071

1.089

  

1.048

1.049

Barmah Forest virus infection

1.527

1.520

1.072

1.249

1.188

1.214

1.201

1.267

1.180

1.189

1.197

1.203

Dengue virus infection

1.362

1.748

1.355

1.417

1.220

1.263

1.149

1.177

1.101

1.110

1.334

1.342

Influenza (laboratory confirmed)

0.425

0.463

0.406

0.438

0.461

0.485

0.461

0.490

0.718

0.681

0.915

0.922

2 Week estimate

 Gonococcal infection

1.213

1.145

1.240

1.217

1.231

1.235

1.306

1.181

1.317

1.266

1.367

1.267

 Varicella zoster (Shingles)

1.015

1.071

0.846

0.820

0.903

0.907

0.950

0.918

0.918

1.020

0.979

0.966

 Pneumococcal disease (invasive)

0.388

0.496

0.529

0.473

0.311

0.374

0.577

0.454

0.403

0.462

0.446

0.495

 Ross River virus infection

0.425

0.449

0.439

0.452

0.364

0.465

0.350

0.378

0.293

0.303

0.295

0.304

 Pertussis

1.575

1.562

1.594

1.571

2.166

1.922

2.399

2.313

2.453

2.436

2.397

2.378

 Chlamydial infection

1.052

1.103

0.992

1.060

0.856

0.991

0.856

0.991

0.884

0.948

0.884

0.948

 Varicella zoster (unspecified)

0.886

0.813

0.869

0.878

0.951

0.854

0.929

0.854

1.034

0.980

1.046

0.995

 Varicella zoster (Chickenpox)

0.862

0.771

0.768

0.789

0.832

0.930

0.769

0.781

0.969

1.060

0.923

0.908

 Cryptosporidiosis

  

1.092

1.098

  

1.089

1.096

  

1.058

1.058

 Barmah Forest virus infection

1.643

1.677

1.129

1.257

1.202

1.265

1.221

1.249

1.204

1.200

1.221

1.222

 Dengue virus infection

1.373

1.527

1.335

1.344

1.269

1.277

1.178

1.175

1.172

1.147

1.341

1.309

 Influenza (laboratory confirmed)

0.473

0.464

0.428

0.420

0.490

0.473

0.501

0.481

0.769

0.734

0.966

0.966

  1. The highest performing models for each disease are indicated in bold. Model characteristics are described in Table 4.
Back to article page