Table 1 Predicted potential distribution of Davidia involucrata.
Model | Total Predicted area (km2) | Predicted area (km2) from threshold–0.5 | Predicted area (km2) from 0.5–1 | Difference with respect to the present (km2 and %) | Overlap with the present (km2 and %) | Overlap of the present with each model (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Present | 534,953 | 350,488 | 184,465 | — | — | |
Mid-Holocene-CCSM | 292,256 | 131,119 | 161,137 | 242,697 (−45.37) | 271,543 (92.91) | 50.76 |
Mid-Holocene-MIROC | 408,637 | 116,960 | 291,677 | 126,316 (−23.61) | 293,095 (71.73) | 54.79 |
Mid-Holocene-MPI | 444,012 | 202,967 | 241,045 | 90,941 (−17.00) | 313,977 (70.71) | 58.69 |
Average Holocene | 381,635 | 150,349 | 231,286 | 153,318 (−28.66) | 292,872 (78.45) | 54.75 |
LGM-CCSM | 654,131 | 283,554 | 370,577 | 119,178 (+22.28) | 471,444 (72.07) | 88.13 |
LGM-MIROC | 605,354 | 215,318 | 390,036 | 70,401 (+13.16) | 446,446 (73.75) | 83.46 |
LGM-MPI | 696,462 | 287,786 | 408,676 | 161,509 (+30.19) | 476,104 (68.36) | 89.00 |
Average LGM | 651,982 | 262,219 | 389,763 | 117,029 (+21.88) | 464,665 (71.39) | 86.86 |
2070-CCSM RCP 2.6 | 362,542 | 227,309 | 135,233 | 172,411 (−32.23) | 334,527 (92.27) | 62.53 |
2070-GFDL RCP 2.6 | 194,921 | 154,649 | 40,272 | 340,032 (−63.56) | 148,629 (76.25) | 27.78 |
2070-MPI RCP 2.6 | 353,095 | 262,546 | 90,549 | 181,858 (−34.00) | 336,952 (95.43) | 62.99 |
2070-CCSM RCP 8.5 | 218,920 | 138,977 | 79,943 | 316,033 (−59.08) | 164,029 (74.93) | 30.66 |
2070-GFDL RCP 8.5 | 110,608 | 89,413 | 21,195 | 424,345 (−79.32) | 50,406 (45.57) | 9.42 |
2070-MPI RCP 8.5 | 141,457 | 104,742 | 36,715 | 393,496 (−73.56) | 118,065 (83.46) | 22.07 |
Average 2070 | 230,257 | 162,939 | 67,318 | 304,696 (−56.96) | 192,101 (77.99) | 35.91 |
