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Showing 1–30 of 30 results
Advanced filters: Author: Gabriele C. Hegerl Clear advanced filters
  • A record spanning two millennia of Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures has revealed the extent to which 2023 was anomalously hot. The finding is a striking confirmation of warming since the pre-industrial period.

    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    • Katherine L. Taylor
    News & Views
    Nature
    Volume: 631, P: 35-36
  • Although climate warming after the 1950s is clear in many studies, records suggest an earlier onset to industrial impacts. This study combines observational data with simulations and finds a weakening of temperature seasonality, attributable to human influence, over the Northern Hemisphere since the late nineteenth century.

    • Jianping Duan
    • Zhuguo Ma
    • Jürg Luterbacher
    Research
    Nature Sustainability
    Volume: 2, P: 484-490
  • A study that compares observed changes in precipitation over land averaged across latitudinal bands with changes simulated by climate models finds that human activity has had a detectable influence on the latitudinal pattern of precipitation change. Such human-induced changes contributed to the increase in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and the decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics that occurred over the twentieth century.

    • Xuebin Zhang
    • Francis W. Zwiers
    • Toru Nozawa
    Research
    Nature
    Volume: 448, P: 461-465
  • Extreme climate events can cause widespread damage and have been projected to become more frequent as the world warms. Yet as discussed at an interdisciplinary workshop, it is often not clear which extremes matter the most, and how and why they are changing.

    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    • Helen Hanlon
    • Carl Beierkuhnlein
    News & Views
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 4, P: 142-143
  • In order to meet internationally agreed temperature limits, it is important to have a defined baseline. This study shows for low-emission scenarios the likelihood and timing of exceedance are highly dependent on the baseline, as are allowable carbon emissions.

    • Andrew P. Schurer
    • Michael E. Mann
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    Research
    Nature Climate Change
    Volume: 7, P: 563-567
  • Polar temperatures have been warming significantly over the past few decades. A comparison between observational temperature records and model simulations shows that temperature changes in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions can be attributed to human activity.

    • Nathan P. Gillett
    • Dáithí A. Stone
    • Philip D. Jones
    Research
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 1, P: 750-754
  • Quantifying the temperature impacts of anthropogenic emissions helps monitor proximity to the Paris Agreement goals. Human activities warmed global mean temperature during the past decade by 0.9 to 1.3 °C above 1850–1900 values, with 1.2 to 1.9 °C from greenhouse gases and −0.7 to −0.1 °C from aerosols.

    • Nathan P. Gillett
    • Megan Kirchmeier-Young
    • Tilo Ziehn
    Research
    Nature Climate Change
    Volume: 11, P: 207-212
  • The United States experienced two of its hottest recorded summers in 1934 and 1936, amplified by drier soils associated with the Dust Bowl drought. A large regional climate model ensemble estimates present-day GHGs would cause similarly extreme, 1-in-100-year heatwaves to occur about every 40 years.

    • Tim Cowan
    • Sabine Undorf
    • Friederike E. L. Otto
    Research
    Nature Climate Change
    Volume: 10, P: 505-510
  • The impact of external influences on European temperatures before 1900 has been thought to be negligible. An analysis of reconstructions of seasonal European land temperatures and simulations from three global climate models instead suggests that external forcing is responsible for a best guess of 75% of the observed winter warming since the late seventeenth century.

    • Gabriele Hegerl
    • Juerg Luterbacher
    • Elena Xoplaki
    Research
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 4, P: 99-103
  • Climate variations over the past 1,000 years correspond to solar fluctuations, but the magnitude of the solar variability is unclear. An analysis of numerical simulations and climate reconstructions suggests that the amplitude of solar forcing was small over this interval, with the main climate forcing derived from volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gas concentrations.

    • Andrew P. Schurer
    • Simon F. B. Tett
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    Research
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 7, P: 104-108
  • A significant effect of anthropogenic activities has already been detected in observed trends in temperature and mean precipitation. But so far, no study has formally identified such a human fingerprint on extreme precipitation — an increase in which is one of the central theoretical expectations for a warming climate. This study compares observations and simulations and detects a statistically significant effect of increased greenhouse gases on observed increases in extreme precipitation events over much of the Northern Hemisphere land area.

    • Seung-Ki Min
    • Xuebin Zhang
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    Research
    Nature
    Volume: 470, P: 378-381
  • The global risk of record-breaking heatwaves is assessed, with the most at-risk regions identified. It is shown that record-smashing events that currently appear implausible could happen anywhere as a result of climate change.

    • Vikki Thompson
    • Dann Mitchell
    • Julia M. Slingo
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature Communications
    Volume: 14, P: 1-8
  • Climate change does not only increase mean temperatures, but also the magnitude of year-to-year temperature variability. Here, the authors use large model ensembles to show that these changes can be statistically distinguished from the baseline variability in most regions of the world during the 21st century.

    • Dirk Olonscheck
    • Andrew P. Schurer
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature Communications
    Volume: 12, P: 1-10
  • In the 1930s, the US was hit by a severe drought and record-breaking heatwaves in a period known as the Dust Bowl. Here, the authors present model experiments that suggest that warm North Atlantic temperatures and human devegetation played key roles in making these heatwaves particularly strong.

    • Tim Cowan
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    • Benjamin Ng
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature Communications
    Volume: 11, P: 1-9
  • Large volcanic eruptions in the first half of the nineteenth century blurred the transition from the Little Ice Age to anthropogenic warming, and led to sustained cooling, drought in Africa and weakened monsoons, suggests a combination of observations and model simulations.

    • Stefan Brönnimann
    • Jörg Franke
    • Christoph C. Raible
    Research
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 12, P: 650-656
  • Accelerating progress in land-climate science requires a renewed focus on developing theory to complement and underpin Earth system models and observations.

    • Michael P. Byrne
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    • Yi Zhang
    Reviews
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 17, P: 1079-1086
  • Climate science celebrates three 40th anniversaries in 2019: the release of the Charney report, the publication of a key paper on anthropogenic signal detection, and the start of satellite temperature measurements. This confluence of scientific understanding and data led to the identification of human fingerprints in atmospheric temperature.

    • Benjamin D. Santer
    • Céline J. W. Bonfils
    • Cheng-Zhi Zou
    Comments & Opinion
    Nature Climate Change
    Volume: 9, P: 180-182
  • To date, values are not widely acknowledged or discussed within physical climate science. Yet, effective management of values in physical climate science is required for the benefit of both science and society.

    • Karoliina Pulkkinen
    • Sabine Undorf
    • Erica Thompson
    Comments & Opinion
    Nature Climate Change
    Volume: 12, P: 4-6
  • Following large explosive volcanic eruptions, precipitation decreases over much of the globe. An analysis of streamflow records from fifty large rivers reveals statistically significant flow reductions in some regions, but increases in others.

    • Carley E. Iles
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    Research
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 8, P: 838-842
  • The quest to determine climate sensitivity has been going on for decades, with disturbingly little progress in narrowing the large uncertainty range. But fascinating new insights have been gained that will provide useful information for policy makers, even though the upper limit of climate sensitivity will probably remain uncertain for the near future.

    • Reto Knutti
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    Reviews
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 1, P: 735-743
  • Climate sensitivity, the long-term warming due to doubled atmospheric CO2 levels, is estimated in the range of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C. A synthesis of work reveals that whether the value falls at the high or low end, future emissions will have to be strongly limited.

    • Reto Knutti
    • Maria A. A. Rugenstein
    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    Reviews
    Nature Geoscience
    Volume: 10, P: 727-736
  • Future projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate based on climate model simulations substantially underestimate the uncertainty that originates from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, suggest synthetic ensemble projections constrained with observations.

    • Christopher H. O’Reilly
    • Daniel J. Befort
    • Gabriele Hegerl
    ResearchOpen Access
    Communications Earth & Environment
    Volume: 2, P: 1-9
  • Two founding fathers of climate science and climate modelling were honoured with the Nobel prize in physics this year. They led early climate research towards both fundamental and societally relevant research, which is now as vital as it was then.

    • Gabriele C. Hegerl
    Comments & OpinionOpen Access
    Communications Earth & Environment
    Volume: 3, P: 1-3