Deciding when to initiate or relax interventions during emerging infectious diseases is challenging due to uncertainties in epidemiological data. Here, the authors show that two sources of surveillance noise, case under-reporting and ascertainment delays, impede timely decision-making asymmetrically, highlighting that standard surveillance data are less reliable for triggering interventions than for relaxing them, and thus may justify proactive measures.
- Kris V. Parag
- Ben Lambert
- Sandor Beregi
