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Evaluation of climate adaptation policies typically compares differences between scenarios with different levels of, or without, climate change. Many policies, however, address development simultaneously, and focusing only on climate change impacts may not identify the best outcome.

Stéphane Hallegatte, Katharine J. Mach and colleagues urge researchers to gear their studies, and the way they present their results, to the needs of policymakers.

Natural disaster risk assessments neglect impacts on households’ well-being. A model to quantify disaster impacts more equitably shows that, in a hypothetical earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, poorer households suffer 19% of the asset losses but 41% of the well-being losses.

Assessing the performance of an economy in times of crisis is a difficult task. This study presents an agent-based model capturing the behaviour of firms facing transport and supply disruptions due to natural disasters, and shows possible paths to reinforce infrastructure and supply chain resilience.

In addition to affecting general economic indicators, climate change could worsen poverty and inequality across and within countries. With a global subnational dataset, researchers confirm that temperature rise leads to increases in headcount poverty and the Gini index, with poorer countries being particularly vulnerable.

The impact of climate change on economic losses from tropical cyclones is a major concern. New research shows that — like changes in population and assets — climate change may double global losses from hurricanes.

To predict how society and political systems might actually respond to warming, upgrade integrated assessment models.

In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

Flood losses in coastal cities will rise due to increasing populations and assets. Research now quantifies average losses in the 136 largest coastal cities. Estimated at approximately US$6 billion in 2005, average annual losses could increase to US$52 billion by 2050 on the basis of projected socio-economic change alone. If climate change and subsidence are also considered, current protection will need to be upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses.

Urban climate policies interact with socio–economic policy goals. These interactions can lead to trade-offs or synergies, but have been rarely analysed. Now research provides a quantification of these trade-offs and synergies, and suggests that stand-alone adaptation and mitigation policies are unlikely to be politically acceptable, emphasizing the need to mainstream climate policy within urban planning.

Analysis of high-resolution annual data shows that global human settlements have expanded continuously and rapidly into flood zones, with those in the most hazardous zones increasing by 122% from 1985 to 2015.

Global emissions associated with the economic growth needed to alleviate extreme poverty are limited.

Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on global supply chains. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns.

The impacts of climate change on human organizations depend not only on the level of emissions but also on the social and economic structures in place. A study identifies three dimensions on which to build a new set of scenarios to assess climate change effects on human systems.

A more equitable global distribution of vaccines can benefit the world, while a multilateral benefit-sharing instrument needs to be developed to remove some of the disincentives for early equitable vaccines distribution globally.

Natural disasters affect supply chains in complex ways that traditional economic models at the sector level cannot capture. An agent-based model representing firm-to-firm interactions demonstrates that these interactions magnify the economic cost of disasters.

In a world of increasingly integrated supply chains, disasters have impacts far from where they hit. A new paper looks at how tropical-cyclone impacts propagate across cities, showing that indirect impacts become large for the most-destructive storms.

The proposed 'cost assessment cycle' is a framework for the integrated cost assessment of natural hazards.

With country-specific development objectives and constraints, multiple market failures and limited international transfers, carbon prices do not need to be uniform across countries, but must be part of broader policy packages.

Investing in infrastructure systems will lock-in patterns of development for future generations. This study finds that infrastructure either directly or indirectly influences the attainment of all of the Sustainable Development Goals, including 72% of the targets.

Managing future flood risk is necessary to minimize costs and achieve maximum benefit from investment. This study presents a framework to assess urban structural protection under climate change and socio-economic development.

The economic impact of climate change has typically been considered at regional or national levels. This Perspective assesses impacts at household level to determine effects on poverty and the poor. It shows how rapid development could reduce these impacts.

A long-term goal for climate policy can only be agreed through political processes, but science can inform these through mapping policy choices and the risks they create. Recommendations for the practical use of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report are provided.

This Review assesses the reasons for concern framework, a key component of IPCC assessments which communicates risk associated with climate change. The study identifies limitations as well as points to extensions which would offer additional metrics.