Extended Data Fig. 5: Observed versus predicted yields across crops.
From: Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation
Crop yields observed in our data (‘Observed’) versus those predicted by our model when dropping country–year fixed effects from estimation (‘Fitted’). The dotted red line is the y = x line; perfect fitted values would lie on this line. The distribution of fitted values around this line indicates that our modelled yields are, on average, unbiased. Fitted yields in levels converted from logs accounting for the non-zero expectation of the log error term. Data winsorized at the 99th percentile for visual clarity. Horizontal banding in some plots associated with known data issues in some countries.
