Fig. 6: Neutralization coverage, geometric mean PT₈₀ and PT₈₀-predicted prevention efficacy over time against viruses circulating in each of the AMP trials for the bnAb regimen, delivered IV every 16 weeks and evaluated in study cohorts of the same size as in the AMP trials.

a,b, Neutralization coverage (defined by PT₈₀ > 200) (averaged to viruses). c,d, geometric mean PT₈₀. e,f, PT₈₀-predicted prevention efficacy. a–d, PGT121LS + PGDM1400LS + VRC07-523LS, 20 + 20 + 20 mg kg^–1. e,f, PGT121LS + PGDM1400LS + VRC07-523LS, 40 +40 + 40 mg kg^–1.a,c,e, HVTN 703/HPTN 081. b,d,f, HVTN 704/HPTN 085. a,b, Tables below each plot provide neutralization coverage averaged to viruses and averaged over the given time frame. Virus exposure was considered covered by 1-, 2- or 3-active bnAbs if the coverage threshold (PT₈₀ > 200) was achieved by at least one, at least two or all three bnAbs, respectively. All predictions were made under the scenario that PGT121LS and PGDM1400LS have 2.5-fold higher half-lives than PGT121 and PGDM1400, based on modeling of the observed serum concentration data of PGT121 and PGDM1400 (refs. ^18,19). For each bnAb regimen, geometric mean PT₈₀ at each time point was calculated as the geometric mean of predicted serum concentration across bnAb recipients at each time point during steady state (simulated based on popPK modeling of each bnAb as described in Methods), divided by the geometric mean of bnAb drug product IC₈₀ across viruses circulating in the designated AMP trial. The PT₈₀ of the triple-bnAb regimen was calculated using the Bliss–Hill interaction model of individual bnAb PT₈₀ titers¹⁰. The viruses circulating in each trial were: a,c,e, m = 47 viruses acquired by n = 29 703/081 (sub-Saharan Africa) placebo recipients; b,d,f, m = 70 viruses acquired by n = 35 704/085 (Americas + Switzerland) placebo recipients. e,f, Solid line, median; shaded area, 95% prediction interval.