Figure 4

Estimated herd immunity date, cumulative vaccination coverage, and cumulative infection rate with different vaccination pace. Herd immunity date is predicted using first-dose vaccine effectiveness and first-dose vaccination pace (see "Methods"). Vaccination pace is the number of vaccine doses administered per 100 people per week. Until the first week of March 2021, the average pace over time is 2.08 doses per 100 people per week. The red curve is the predicted herd immunity date (left y-axis) in both (a) and (b). The blue curve is the estimated cumulative vaccination coverage in the population (right y-axis) when herd immunity is achieved in a and the estimated cumulative infection rate (right y-axis) in (b).