Fig. 3: Observation-derived and simulated drivers of temperature jumps. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 3: Observation-derived and simulated drivers of temperature jumps.

From: The observed September 2023 temperature jump was nearly impossible under standard anthropogenic forcing

Fig. 3: Observation-derived and simulated drivers of temperature jumps.The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

a Global mean temperature (GMT, red shading), total column water vapour, downwelling shortwave radiation, soil moisture, and the NINO3.4 index during 2023, all based on ERA5 and expressed as standardized anomalies relative to 1980–2023. b Absolute GMT anomaly in September 2023 from the ERA5 reanalysis (left) and predicted anomaly based on grid cell linear regression (right). c Regional averages of contributions from different predictors to the GMT jump in September 2023. d Global contributions of the same predictors to 40 extreme temperature jumps simulated in a subset of CMIP6 models with more than 10 ensemble members available (n = 6) at the 2023 GWL. Boxplots show the median, quartiles, and whiskers extending to 1.5 × the IQR; points beyond are shown as outliers.

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