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Reply to 'A note of caution about the excess winter deaths measure'

Nature Climate Change volume 4, page 648 (2014)Cite this article

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Staddon et al. reply —

Hajat and Kovats1 question our conclusion that climate change may no longer be assumed to bring a health dividend due to the warming of winters2. We accept that the excess winter deaths (EWDs) measure is not perfect; more work is required to develop better temperature and health metrics relevant to seasons and years (rather than extrapolating from daily observations) as has been done for air pollution3. However, we do not agree that the EWDs measure is so flawed as to prevent its use in drawing conclusions about relationships between weather and mortality. Cold-related deaths that occur outside the December–March period are irrelevant because our study has focussed on winter deaths. We did this specifically because winter deaths have been predicted to fall as winters warm. The Health Protection Agency stated that “the number of cold-related deaths will likely decrease due to milder winters”4. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment5 concluded that “increased winter temperatures may lead to decreased levels of mortality and morbidity due to cold”. The estimate made by Hajat and Kovats that 70% of all cold-related deaths occur on days warmer than the 5 °C threshold is misleading: this conclusion is based on the assumption that deaths occurring on days below 20 °C are cold-related and deaths on days above 20 °C are warm-related6; by this definition, most UK deaths are cold-related. However, we would challenge the simplicity of this notion given that temperature–mortality relationships show two inflections points, not one.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Exeter Medical School European Centre for Environment and Human Health, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital Trust, Truro, TR1 3HD, UK

    Philip Staddon & Michael Depledge

  2. University College London Institute for Human Health and Performance, Charterhouse Building, Archway Campus, Highgate Hill, N19 5LW, London, UK

    Hugh Montgomery

  3. NIHR University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Maple House 1st floor, 149 Tottenham Court Road, London, W1T 7DN, UK

    Hugh Montgomery

Authors
  1. Philip Staddon
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  2. Hugh Montgomery
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  3. Michael Depledge
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Correspondence to Philip Staddon.

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Staddon, P., Montgomery, H. & Depledge, M. Reply to 'A note of caution about the excess winter deaths measure'. Nature Clim Change 4, 648 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2304

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