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Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

Nature Geoscience volume 3, pages 376–377 (2010)Cite this article

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The greenhouse gas emission scenarios used in recent IPCC assessments originated from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)7. This provided a detailed overview of forty non-mitigation scenarios that were structured into six subgroups based on common storylines. As noted in the report, it is not appropriate to average across the scenarios within one subgroup, because such an average would mix different options for socioeconomic development and would therefore not be internally self-consistent. Moreover, subgroup averages do not reflect the full range of possible emissions pathways.

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Figure 1: Fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand

    M. R. Manning

  2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, 20740, Maryland, USA

    J. Edmonds, R. Moss & S. Smith

  3. Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Ibaraki, Japan

    S. Emori & M. Kainuma

  4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria and DOES, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea

    A. Grubler

  5. Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Way, Richland, 99354, Washington, USA

    K. Hibbard

  6. Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland

    F. Joos

  7. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Dirgo, 9500 Gilmann Drive, La Jolla, 92093, California, USA

    R. F. Keeling

  8. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, 3720, AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    T. Kram & D. P. van Vuuren

  9. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    A. C. Manning

  10. Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A26, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany

    M. Meinshausen

  11. Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, 1040 Vienna, Austria and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    N. Nakicenovic

  12. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria and Graz University of Technology, 12 Inffeldgasse, 8010, Graz, Austria

    K. Riahi

  13. Global Climate Change Research Group, Electric Power Research Institute, 3240 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, 94304, California, USA

    S. K. Rose

  14. Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700, AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

    R. Swart

Authors
  1. M. R. Manning
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  2. J. Edmonds
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  3. S. Emori
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  6. F. Joos
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  7. M. Kainuma
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  8. R. F. Keeling
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  9. T. Kram
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  10. A. C. Manning
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  12. R. Moss
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  13. N. Nakicenovic
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  17. R. Swart
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  18. D. P. van Vuuren
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Correspondence to M. R. Manning.

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Manning, M., Edmonds, J., Emori, S. et al. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios. Nature Geosci 3, 376–377 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo880

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