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Transplantation

New tool for prediction of ESRD risk in living kidney donor candidates

Nature Reviews Nephrology volume 12, page 1 (2016)Cite this article

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Current evaluation of candidates for living kidney donation involves screening for individual risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Now, researchers have developed an online tool to aid donor selection that predicts the long-term risk of ESRD in donor candidates in the absence of kidney donation.

To develop their risk prediction tool, Grams and colleagues identified nearly 5 million individuals with no health conditions that would be considered absolute contraindications for kidney donation, from seven general population cohorts in the USA, Canada and Israel. They assessed the relative risks of ESRD associated with ten demographic and health characteristics in these low-risk subgroups, which had follow-up data ranging from a median of 4 years to 16 years, and calibrated these risk associations to the observed incidence of ESRD among low-risk individuals in the USA. “We used this method because relative risks tend to be fairly generalizable, whereas absolute risks can vary from population to population. Thus, we wanted to anchor our absolute risks on the most generalizable population we could,” says Grams.

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References

  1. Grams, M. E. et al. Kidney-failure risk projection for the living kidney-donor candidate. N. Engl. J. Med. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1510491

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Authors
  1. Ellen F. Carney
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Carney, E. New tool for prediction of ESRD risk in living kidney donor candidates. Nat Rev Nephrol 12, 1 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nrneph.2015.194

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