Fig. 3: Effect size of each predict variable for flowering timing extracted from linear mixed models.
From: Flowering in the Northern Hemisphere is delayed by frost after leaf-out
In these models, all leafing-flowering matched observations (286,367 in total) were included. Species, region, and period were categorized into early-(130,640) and late-leafing (155,727) species, boreal (1994), temperate (6982), and subtropical (276,989) region, and period of 1950–1980 (118,591) and 1981–2021 (167,776), respectively. Numbers in the parentheses are the exact leafing-flowering matched sample size for each group. Flowering timing was the response variable, while species or region or period, LSF, and its interaction with each categorical variable were the predictors, with species and sites as random intercepts. The red and blue points indicate the negative and positive estimates of predictor effect size, respectively. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The black vertical dashed line denotes when estimate of effect size equals to zero. The asterisks indicate a significant difference (two-side t-test, p < 0.05) from zero according to the mixed models results. Variables in these mixed models are standardized in order to compare the effect size within and between models. The detailed estimations of the mixed models are provided in Supplementary Data 11. Source data are provided in Source Data Fig. 3.
