Fig. 3: Clinical outcomes by ctDNA dynamics and TRG score.

Kaplan–Meier estimates of patients with LAR G/GEJ adenocarcinoma representing (A) RFS & (B) OS stratified by ctDNA dynamics pre-, during- (on-NAT), and post-NAT. HRs and 95% CIs were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model; P-values were calculated using the two-sided log-rank test. For (B) the HR value was based on Firth’s penalized maximum likelihood. C Violin plot showing pre-NAT MTM/mL levels for ctDNA dynamics pre-, during-, and post-NAT categories. N denotes the number of patients within each subgroup of ctDNA dynamics (ctDNA + /−/−, ctDNA + /+/−, ctDNA + /+/+). Center line: median MTM/ml; bottom of box: 25% quantile; top of box: 75% quantile; data points represent outliers. P-values were calculated using the two-sided Wilcoxon Rank Sum test. D The contingency plot shows the association of ctDNA dynamics pre-, during-, and post-NAT with the TRG score. The p-value for the bar plot was calculated based on the two-sided chi-square test. The TRG score was unavailable for one patient in the ctDNA + /−/− subgroup. ctDNA circulating tumor DNA, Cl Confidence interval, HR Hazard ratio, MTM mean tumor molecules, NAT neoadjuvant therapy, NR not reached, RFS Recurrence-free survival, OS Overall survival.