Fig. 4: Clinical outcomes by ctDNA, ypT, and ypN status, & TRG score.

Kaplan–Meier estimates of patients with LAR G/GEJ adenocarcinoma representing (A) RFS & B) OS stratified by ctDNA status within the MRD window. P = 7.17e-06 (A), P = 6.64e-06 (B). C RFS & (D) OS stratified by ctDNA status within the MRD window and ypT stage. P = 9.62e-05 (blue vs. green, C), P = 2.89e-05 (blue vs. red, C), P = 1.1e-06 (blue vs. red, D). E RFS & F OS stratified by ctDNA status within the MRD window and ypN stage. P = 0.000114 (blue vs. green, E), P = 1.38e-06 (blue vs. red, E), P = 2.01e-05 (blue vs. green, F), P = 9.53e-05 (blue vs. red, F). G RFS & (H) OS stratified by ctDNA status within the MRD window and TRG score. P = 0.000647 (blue vs. red, G), P = 1.93e-05 (blue vs. red, H). HRs and 95% CIs were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model. P-values were calculated using the two-sided log-rank test. The RFS and OS analyses in the MRD window were landmarked from the date of the MRD time point (12 weeks post-surgery). Median RFS/OS and percentage RFS and OS were estimated from the landmark timepoint. I, J Forest plot depicting multivariate analysis for RFS (I) and OS (J) in patients with LAR G/GEJ within the MRD window. Various prognostic factors and their association with RFS/OS, as indicated by HR, were analyzed across the cohort using the two-sided Wald chi-squared test. The unadjusted HRs (squares) and 95% CIs (horizontal lines) are shown for each prognostic factor; the vertical dotted line represents the null hypothesis (I, J). Abbreviations: ctDNA circulating tumor DNA, Cl Confidence interval, NAT neoadjuvant therapy, GEJ gastroesophageal junction, HR Hazard ratio, MRD molecular residual disease, NR not reached, RFS Recurrence-free survival, OS Overall survival.