Abstract
Environmental mercury (Hg) pollution affects microbial community structure and functions. Yet, whether and how this influence cascades through microbe-mediated cycling of major greenhouse gases (GHGs) remains poorly understood. This Perspective synthesizes emerging evidence on the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus, exploring the possibility that global Hg emission reductions, while critical for human and planetary health, may cause alterations to microbe-mediated GHG fluxes. Significant knowledge gaps persist, however, regarding the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus, particularly concerning the magnitude and direction of the nexus’s net impact on climate and global environmental change. To bridge these gaps, we propose a three-step roadmap aimed at disentangling the potential impacts of global Hg emission mitigation strategies on microbial communities, associated GHG emissions, and subsequent climate change. Collectively, these joint efforts from scientists, industry, community stakeholders, and policymakers are critical to harmonizing global Hg mitigation efforts with climate action and to ensuring a sustainable future for Earth systems and their inhabitants.
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Introduction
The Earth’s biogeochemical element cycles are complex and intricately interconnected1. Changes in one cycle, due to natural processes or human activities, can significantly impact others. This is the case for the cascading effects of altered carbon emissions on global mercury (Hg) cycling dynamics. Specifically, escalating anthropogenic activities—including deforestation and fossil fuel combustion—pump enormous amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere, accelerating global warming and associated climatic shifts2,3. These changes subsequently drive large-scale environmental transformations such as biome shifts, permafrost thaw, and ocean stratification2,3,4. Such climate-driven changes can directly influence Hg cycling, e.g., accelerating the release of legacy Hg from thawing permafrost5 and disrupting Hg accumulation in marine sediments through intensified ocean stratification4. Critically, these changes can also indirectly reshape Hg biogeochemistry by exerting impacts on microbes6. For instance, warmer temperatures and associated shifts in hydrology enhance microbial methylation, elevating concentrations of neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) in terrestrial and aquatic food webs7,8. This climate-microbe-Hg nexus amplifies exposure risks to wildlife and human health, undermining the effectiveness of global Hg mitigation efforts under the Minamata Convention (MC), which aims to reduce Hg pollution and exposure but now faces compounding pressures from rapid, global environmental change processes9,10.
Growing evidence suggests a feedback process in which Hg contamination may affect GHG dynamics by altering microbial GHG metabolism11. Microbes serve as fundamental regulators of the global carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles12, driving GHG fluxes through the production and consumption of major GHGs—including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) (see details in Box 1). Key functional groups include decomposers (e.g., Planctomycetota13 and Actinomycetota14), CH4-producing methanogens (e.g., Methanobacteria15), CH4-consuming methanotrophs (e.g., Verrucomicrobiota16), nitrifiers (e.g., ammonia-oxidizing bacteria17), and denitrifiers (e.g., Pseudomonadota18). However, Hg contamination elicits diverse, ecosystem-specific microbial responses that interfere with GHG-related microbial abundance or activities, potentially reconfiguring global GHG dynamics. For example, in forested ecosystems, Hg exposure reduces soil microbial diversity and activity19, decreasing bacterial basal respiration by 11%–64% and compromising bacterial community structural integrity by 2%–3%20. Similarly, in paddy soils, Hg suppresses key microbial phyla such as Planctomycetota and Actinomycetota21—critical players in C and N cycling13,14—leading to a substantial 65.6% reduction in ecosystem multifunctionality21. Conversely, in pasture fields, long-term Hg exposure increases the abundance of Verrucomicrobia and fungi22, potentially accelerating organic matter decomposition and CO2 release16,22,23.
Collectively, these findings, while potentially compounded by climate-mediated abiotic processes such as temperature-driven Hg remobilization8 and temperature-disrupted Hg sedimentation4, suggest that fluctuations in Hg inputs into ecosystems may impact microbial-mediated GHG emissions and cycling dynamics. However, the effects of Hg on microbial communities are complex and context-dependent, varying from negative to neutral or even positive (Table 1). This complexity could be further complicated by the effectiveness of global Hg mitigation efforts. For instance, while MC-aligned mitigation measures in a coal-heavy energy scenario offer promising regional Hg emission reductions, a global transition away from coal energy would ultimately yield a more substantial and widespread decrease in Hg emissions24,25,26. The uncertainties in both microbial response to Hg and the projected outcomes of mitigation strategies complicate our understanding and the predictability of climate-related consequences associated with global Hg mitigation efforts under the MC. Therefore, further research is essential to elucidate the complex Hg-microbe-GHG interactions across diverse environments. This will clarify whether ongoing Hg mitigation measures would cascade through GHG-regulating microbes, ultimately impacting net GHG emissions at local, regional, and global scales, particularly under climate conditions concurrently altered by persistent GHG emissions.
In this Perspective, we synthesize recent diverse findings to (1) highlight the urgency of elucidating the complex Hg-microbe-GHG nexus, (2) reveal critical knowledge gaps in identifying nexus hotspots and substantial uncertainties regarding the magnitude and direction of potential climate impacts, and (3) present a practical, three-step roadmap to navigate the complexities of global Hg mitigation strategies and their cascading effects on microbial communities, GHG emissions, and climate feedback loops. Importantly, the synthesis presented here adopts a baseline scenario of continuing anthropogenic Hg and GHG emissions. We recognize this baseline represents a normative choice reflecting current trajectories, rather than a steady-state natural system. The ongoing inputs of both Hg and GHGs themselves actively shape microbial communities and biogeochemical processes. Alternative baselines (e.g., stabilized or reduced emissions) would yield different perspectives on the interactions and potential impacts of mitigation efforts. This framing choice is critical for interpreting the dynamics discussed below and their policy implications. By doing so, we aim to increase awareness within the scientific community about the significance of the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus and to catalyze collaboration among industry, scientists, civil society, and policymakers. Such coordinated efforts are essential to foster synergies between global Hg mitigation and climate action, ensuring that progress in one does not inadvertently undermine the other.
A need to explore the microbe-mediated Hg-GHG nexus
Ongoing global Hg mitigation efforts under the MC, implemented during a period of increasing climate action, are yielding measurable decreases in atmospheric Hg concentrations2,9,10. For instance, Feinberg et al. documented a significant decrease in gaseous elemental Hg (Hg0) concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere between 2005 and 2020, attributing this trend to an annual reduction of at least 140 megagrams (Mg) in anthropogenic emissions27. Regional studies also highlight similar progress, such as the observed 35% reduction in the Baltic Sea region between 1990 and 201728. A particularly notable example is China’s targeted Hg mitigation policies, implemented during the MC’s active phase (2013–2022), which reduced atmospheric Hg0 concentrations by 38.6% over the decade29.
While these achievements signify crucial progress in Hg mitigation, they also raise critical questions about potential unintended interactions between Hg and CO2 dynamics. These interactions are linked by the highly diverse microbes involved in carbon biogeochemistry and remain poorly understood at both regional and global scales. As highlighted earlier, microbes involved in carbon cycling—including those responsible for organic matter decomposition and CH4 production—may respond to fluctuations in Hg concentrations, co-shaped by both Hg contamination and mitigation measures. This may lead to cascading impacts on CO2 dynamics. An analysis of ice core data appears to show a concurrence of lower Hg with elevated CO2 over the past 670,000 years30. Yet, whether and how they were mechanistically related to each other remains poorly understood, making causality difficult to establish. Clarifying this potential causal relationship is therefore a timely and critical research priority.
The potential impacts of the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus may extend to nitrous oxide (N2O) and CH4, both potent GHGs with 300- and 80-fold warming potential of CO2 over 100- and 20-year timescales, respectively31. Wetlands, which contribute ~25% of global CH4 emissions32, represent critical ecosystems where Hg contamination may affect CH4 dynamics by altering the balance between methanogenic production and methanotrophic consumption33,34. For example, paddy soils with elevated Hg concentrations can enhance methanogen abundance (e.g., Methanobacteria)33, potentially enhancing net CH4 emissions. This aligns with observations in agricultural ponds where methanogen dominance drives higher CH4 release35. Similarly, Hg also disrupts nitrogen cycling, with implications for N2O emissions36,37. In vegetable fields, ammonia-oxidizing bacteria show a 50% reduction in potential nitrification rates at Hg concentrations >1.59 μg/g, while ammonia-oxidizing archaea remain resilient36, skewing nitrogen retention toward NH4+. Wheat-maize soil exposed to elevated Hg doses exhibits transient spikes in denitrification enzyme activity, potentially increasing N2O emissions37. These dose-dependent responses, while still lacking long-term exposure scenarios across low, medium, and high Hg concentrations in diverse environmental settings, highlight Hg’s potential to destabilize interconnected carbon-nitrogen feedback, creating trade-offs between CH4, CO2, and N2O emissions that depend on microbial adaptation and ecosystem status (Table 1).
Notably, even minor structural changes in microbial communities induced by Hg (e.g., a 2% change in microbial community structure in temperate forest soil20) may yield disproportionally large functional consequences for microbe-mediated GHG emissions at ecosystem and global scales. To illustrate the potential scale of this effect, consider a hypothetical 1% change in net CH4 emissions in wetlands. This level of fluctuation is plausible given documented Hg impacts on microbial CH4 cycling33,34,35. Based on 2023 wetland emission estimates (194 million tons)38, this hypothetical change would increase the global CH4 budget by 1.94 million tons. Such an increase equals 19% of the emissions from biomass burning, a major contributor to anthropogenic CH4 emissions38. However, current observational data remain insufficient to predict the net climate impacts of Hg mitigation. Compounding factors, such as intensifying hurricanes, wildfires, and widespread forest decline, further complicate Hg-GHG interactions by altering redox conditions and microbial habitats39,40. Closing these knowledge gaps is essential to advance our understanding of the microbe-mediated Hg-GHG nexus, offering insights into aligning Hg and climate policies and ensuring that progress in one domain does not inadvertently undermine the other.
Elucidating the impacts of modern Hg
A key challenge in elucidating the impact of global Hg mitigation on climate change through the microbe-mediated Hg-GHG nexus lies in differentiating the distinct roles of “modern” and “legacy” Hg in reshaping microbial communities and their associated GHG emissions (see Box 2).
In nature, microbial communities are simultaneously exposed to modern Hg inputs and the large, but generally less bioavailable, legacy Hg reservoirs. While modern Hg inputs are smaller, especially in terrestrial ecosystems (e.g., <0.1% of Hg in global topsoil from annual atmospheric deposition41), they represent a more dynamic and bioavailable fraction to microbes (see Box 2). However, legacy Hg can be remobilized and spatially redistributed42, particularly in historically contaminated sites, substantially affecting ecosystems far from the source, e.g., contributing 21%–82% of Hg in downstream marsh habitats in New Jersey, USA43. Furthermore, climate change and anthropogenic perturbations, such as farming and land use changes42,44, can remobilize legacy Hg, thereby increasing its bioavailability and thus potential impacts on microbes41,45. For instance, the incorporation of rice straw into paddy soils, a common agricultural practice, has been shown to enhance the abundance/activity of microbial methylators and the transformation of refractory mercury sulfide (HgS)—a dominant species of legacy Hg in soils and sediments44—to organic matter-complexed Hg, increasing its bioavailability and subsequent microbial methylation to more mobile forms with higher toxicity like neurotoxin MeHg46. Consequently, the interplay between aging and remobilization (see Box 2) complicates the relationship between atmospheric Hg mitigation and microbial responses (Fig. 1). This complexity makes it difficult to pinpoint how reducing modern Hg inputs, the focus of global Hg mitigation efforts, affects microbial communities and GHG dynamics, and highlights the role of timing, severity, and frequency of ecological disturbances in mobilizing legacy Hg. Therefore, distinguishing individual and interactive roles of “modern” versus “legacy” Hg in the context of microbial GHG regulation is essential.
Legacy Hg can be remobilized (gray solid arrow) by environmental disturbances. Both modern and remobilized legacy Hg impact microbial communities (see details in Box 2). Global Hg mitigation efforts (red arrow) substantially alter modern Hg inputs, potentially cascading through microbial communities to influence their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus climate change (blue arrow). Unlike the established climate feedback on microbes and Hg cycling (black arrow), ecosystem sensitivity to Hg mitigation—and its cascading GHG effects—remains poorly constrained. Therefore, we propose a three-step roadmap, aiming to identify these Hg mitigation-sensitive ecosystems and help align Hg mitigation with climate action.
This challenge in linking fluctuations of modern Hg inputs to microbial GHG dynamics could be further complicated by microbes’ complex and non-linear responses to Hg exposure. Microbial communities may initially react strongly to environmental changes, exhibiting significant shifts in structure and function. However, this initial sensitivity can be followed by a moderate response and even potential acclimation as the microbial community adapts to disturbance regimes and the altered environment47. Crucially, adaptation timescales vary substantially—from days to decades—depending on microbial species and environmental conditions. For instance, Zhou et al. found that microbial communities initially experienced a significant shift in gene expression patterns days after exposure to elevated Hg concentrations, followed by a gradual adaptation over time37. By contrast, a notable increase in the population size of microbes carrying the merA gene encoding the mercuric reductase enzyme, which is crucial for Hg detoxification, occurred approximately two decades into the Industrial Revolution48. This rise correlated with elevated atmospheric Hg concentrations and increased anthropogenic emissions. Bayesian relaxed molecular clocks identified a strong positive selection in the merA gene, highlighting microbial adaptation to increased modern Hg inputs48. However, we lack evidence for how rapidly microbes adapt to declining modern Hg inputs. Global Hg mitigation efforts have led to sharp reductions (e.g., a 70% decrease within four years on Chongming Island49), yet it remains unknown whether and how microbes can adjust to such rapid emission decreases.
Can reductions in modern Hg, the primary target of global mitigation efforts, reshape microbial communities and consequently shift the dynamic balance of microbial GHG production/consumption differently than the ongoing influence of continuous modern Hg deposition, or are these effects masked by legacy Hg dynamics? Resolving this requires disentangling the contributions of modern versus legacy Hg to microbial processes and elucidating the non-linear responses of microbial communities to changes in their environments. Besides, microbial responses to changes in modern Hg inputs likely depend on a range of properties, from the abundance and diversity of functional genes to global biogeochemical cycling patterns, that vary across spatiotemporal scales. Therefore, assessing how global Hg mitigation affects microbial GHG emissions also requires identifying ecosystems most sensitive to changes in modern Hg inputs, as detailed in the following section.
Hg mitigation and ecosystem sensitivity
It is important to recognize that the potential impacts of fluctuations in modern Hg on microbes and associated GHG emissions may vary considerably across ecosystems, leading to differences in ecosystem sensitivity to Hg mitigation (Table 1). Here, we propose that this sensitivity could largely be dependent on (1) the modern-to-legacy Hg ratio, which determines the bioavailable Hg pool accessible to microbes (see Box 2), and (2) microbial functional sensitivity, mediated by genetic profiles, physiology, and environmental factors that control Hg speciation, bioaccumulation, and toxicity. While ecosystem sensitivity involves complex feedback, we prioritize these two actionable parameters for global policy implementation, enabling the identification of terrestrial and aquatic hotspots where modern Hg fluctuations will most likely affect the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus.
The modern-to-legacy Hg ratio serves as a key indicator of an ecosystem’s sensitivity to Hg contamination and its responsiveness and sensitivity to mitigation efforts. This significance in determining ecosystem sensitivity to Hg mitigation can be illustrated by contrasting marine and terrestrial environments. Specifically, the vast pool of legacy Hg in terrestrial surface soils—due to relatively fast aging as Hg can bind rapidly to organic matter/clays in soils/sediments50—may buffer the impacts of fluctuations in modern Hg inputs on microbes. This is because the larger pool of legacy Hg can act as a reservoir of bioavailable Hg, continuously remobilized under the impact of natural processes (including climate change) and ongoing anthropogenic activities like farming45. Consequently, a low modern-to-legacy Hg ratio in terrestrial surface soils lessens the immediate ecosystem impacts of fluctuations in modern Hg inputs (and thus fluctuations in the ratio itself). By contrast, fluctuations in modern Hg inputs are highly likely to play a more pronounced role in marine ecosystems (covering 71% of Earth’s surface) characterized by a higher modern-to-legacy ratio. On the ocean surface, the annual input of atmospheric Hg can be up to 1.5 times that of Hg residing in water41 and can persist in bioavailable forms (e.g., MeHg) longer, partly because phytoplankton acts as a MeHg reservoir and produces organic matter that enhances MeHg production51. As a result, this higher ratio means marine ecosystems may exhibit greater sensitivity: reducing anthropogenic Hg emissions could have a more direct impact on marine bioavailable Hg pools, potentially leading to a higher sensitivity of marine ecosystems to global Hg mitigation strategies compared to systems dominated by legacy Hg.
Beyond the modern-to-legacy Hg ratio, the characteristics of microbial communities play a critical role in shaping the sensitivity of ecosystems to Hg mitigation. Different microbes may exhibit diverse responses to current Hg fluctuations (Table 1), leading to distinct changes in microbial GHG emissions. For example, methanogenic archaea show extreme sensitivity, with their CH4 production strongly inhibited when exposed to 0.02 µg/mL inorganic Hg52. By contrast, some phototrophic microbes have been reported to benefit from the presence of inorganic Hg, an electrophilic element, to maintain redox homeostasis53. These diverse responses to Hg exposure could potentially result in positive, negative, or neutral consequences for overall microbe-mediated GHG emissions from various ecosystems. This point is exemplified in a recently published work highlighting a “seesaw” effect31, wherein mitigating one could inadvertently elevate others due to the interconnectedness and complexity of microbial systems11, such as increased N2O emissions induced by methanotroph-mediated CH4 mitigation31,54. This phenomenon directly parallels our investigation of Hg impacts on the microbial GHG nexus, underscoring how microbial functional interdependence governs biogeochemical feedback to Hg mitigation.
These interconnected factors, including the modern-to-legacy ratio and variation in microbial fitness in the presence of Hg, can create microbial sensitivity hotspots within and across ecosystems where communities respond sensitively to modern Hg inputs, ultimately influencing global GHG emissions. For example, a potential hotspot where changes in modern Hg inputs are likely to affect microbial communities is the litter layer in topsoil environments. This layer, characterized by frequent litterfall and active microbe-mediated litter decomposition, contributes to over 23% of global soil CO2 emissions55. Simultaneously, efficient leaf uptake of atmospheric Hg0, coupled with subsequent litterfall, concentrates atmospheric Hg within the litter layer. Quantitative assessments reveal substantial Hg loading through litterfall, with annual deposition fluxes reaching 40.5 μg/m2 for total Hg and 0.10 μg/m2 for MeHg in coniferous forests56. Even higher fluxes are observed in broad-leaved forests, where annual deposition reaches 90.9 μg/m2 for total Hg and 0.34 μg/m2 for MeHg, primarily attributed to greater litterfall biomass56. This combination could create potential hotspots in terrestrial ecosystems where modern Hg may exert a stronger effect on microbial GHG emissions in the specific layers, even though the concentrations of modern Hg inputs are generally lower than legacy Hg in bulk soil and may have only minimal effects on soil microbes.
Potential hotspots can also be found in aquatic environments. For example, algal blooms and their decomposition in the sediments of freshwater lakes create cycling regimes similar to those commonly observed in soil litter. During algal blooms, algae can scavenge high concentrations of Hg from both the atmosphere and the water column57. The subsequent decomposition of algal biomass in the sediments not only provides a rich source of organic carbon but also fosters anaerobic or anoxic conditions, facilitating the growth of methanogens and potentially leading to elevated CH4 emissions58. While specific numbers on the direct inputs of Hg from algal blooms and the resulting increase in methanogens in sediments are highly variable and lake-specific, the general principle of concentrated Hg and organic matter leading to enhanced methanogenesis holds. Coastal zones similarly represent potential sensitivity hotspots due to land-sea exchange and river transport of terrestrial discharges59,60. The relatively high concentrations of modern, potentially more bioavailable Hg in the water column, combined with continuous inputs of nutrients and organic matter that boost microbial growth, organic decomposition, and GHG production, could create ecological hotspots where microbial activity and associated GHG production are more sensitive to changes in Hg loading. Likewise, constructed wetlands—increasingly deployed as nature-based solutions for wastewater treatment and flood control61—constitute another key hotspot category. These systems receive exceptional modern Hg loads from sewage and flood events, while dynamic water-level management62 induces redox shifts that remobilize legacy Hg63. Such fluctuations may disproportionately alter microbial GHG fluxes compared to natural wetlands. It is thus urgent and necessary to confirm whether these hotspots exist, as well as their hidden impacts on global carbon cycling and climate change.
In addition to the aforementioned factors, ecosystem complexity itself modulates microbial responses and hotspot formation at broader spatiotemporal scales. For example, ecosystems like coastal Antarctica, where warming-induced glacial retreat increases Hg enrichment in sediments, may exhibit heightened sensitivity to modern Hg input fluctuations64. While microbial diversity in Antarctica might not be strictly lower than in other ecosystems, the microbial community composition, potentially with fewer Hg-resistant (merA gene-carrying) microbes due to historically low anthropogenic Hg concentrations65, could lead to increased vulnerability. This aligns with evidence suggesting that ecosystems with lower microbial diversity or biomass generally show reduced resilience and greater responsiveness to external stresses like pollution66,67. Vegetation further complicates the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus. Plants can uptake atmospheric Hg, thus creating modern Hg inputs into soils via litterfall. Ecosystems with higher gross primary productivity, such as tropical forest soils with elevated atmospheric Hg contributions68, may thus experience increased modern Hg inputs through this litterfall-driven pathway. Additionally, fungi, particularly arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), play a critical role in Hg cycling. AMF form symbiotic relationships with plant roots, directly mediating Hg uptake and translocation in host plants69. Notably, their tolerance to Hg contamination varies, introducing variability into plant-Hg dynamics70. These multifaceted interactions underscore the complexity of predicting modern Hg’s impacts on microbial communities and subsequent GHG emissions, likely creating hotspots of the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus. A thorough understanding of these interactions is essential for identifying sensitive ecosystems vulnerable to changing Hg concentrations under global mitigation scenarios.
In summary, our current understanding of how environmental Hg affects microbial communities is mechanistically limited and fragmented across Hg topical sub-disciplines and different spatiotemporal scales. These gaps hinder accurate estimations of microbe-mediated GHG emissions in response to fluctuating modern Hg inputs, which warrant further investigation and prompt attention from the scientific and public policy communities. Despite the complexity of these interactions, they offer opportunities for innovative solutions. Although global Hg mitigation and overall GHG emission reduction efforts might have unexpected consequences, region-specific strategies could leverage the unique characteristics of Hg-sensitive ecosystems to achieve synergistic benefits for both Hg mitigation and climate action. These complex relationships emphasize the critical role of microbial communities in climate mitigation and the need for careful planning in mitigation strategies at local, regional, and global scales (see Roadmap Step 3 in Fig. 1).
A roadmap to align Hg mitigation with climate action
Ensuring effective global Hg mitigation and its long-term benefits, in our opinion, requires navigating its complex interplay with climate change through the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus. We propose that integrating Hg mitigation strategies with climate action awareness is essential. However, we explicitly acknowledge that navigating potential trade-offs involves significant normative judgments. Prioritizing marginal GHG reductions could deprioritize Hg mitigation in sensitive ecosystems where conflicts arise. To enable transparent decision-making on these trade-offs, we propose a three-step roadmap (Fig. 1, lower panel):
Step 1: Identify Hg mitigation-sensitive ecosystems
Research efforts should be prioritized in regions with high natural GHG fluxes and substantial fluctuations in modern Hg inputs to identify potential hotspots of Hg-microbe-GHG interactions. Candidate ecosystems include terrestrial topsoil litter layers, algal-bloom lakes, coastal zones, and constructed wetlands (see “Hg mitigation and ecosystem sensitivity” Section).
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Remote sensing can be leveraged to monitor regions with high natural GHG emissions, such as wetlands and peatlands, and to track environmental variables acting as proxies for modern Hg inputs across broad spatiotemporal scales. Typical examples include soil organic carbon from Landsat 8/9 and Sentinel-271 for Hg sequestration, hyperspectral and multispectral imaging from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Sentinel-5 Precursor for vegetation indices72 like chlorophyll-a anomalies indicating algal blooms that reshape Hg methylation, and synthetic aperture radar of Sentinel-173 to track wetland inundation dynamics governing Hg methylation hotspots.
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Machine learning and deep learning (ML/DL) models can be employed to integrate remote sensing data with climate records, soil properties, hydrology data, and microbial functional trait databases, e.g., Integrated Microbial Genomes & Microbiomes (IMG/M) developed by the DOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI). This predicts potential sensitivity hotspots by estimating Hg-GHG coupling/decoupling probabilities, augmenting process understanding where direct data is scarce.
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Disentangle Hg-microbe-GHG interactions through both lab and field-based experiments in identified regions to characterize ecosystem responses to modern Hg inputs, be it synergetic (decreasing GHG emissions), antagonistic (increasing GHG emissions), or insignificant. Understanding the nature and scale of these interactions is crucial for predicting the impacts of global Hg mitigation on climate change. We emphasize that “sensitivity” reflects a policy-relevant framing, instead of an intrinsic ecosystem property.
Step 2: Quantify source-specific impacts of modern Hg inputs
Analytical methods, building upon existing techniques (e.g., Hg isotopes, metagenomics, remote sensing, and ML/DL), should be developed for Hg source fingerprinting. This is crucial for differentiating the impacts of modern Hg inputs from specific sources (e.g., atmospheric deposition, irrigation, and litterfall) on microbial GHG emissions across ecosystems.
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Land use changes, vegetation indices related to litterfall, irrigation patterns, and other typical remote sensing products can be used in conjunction with ML/DL to map pathways of modern Hg inputs at scale. For example, light detection and ranging (LiDAR) topography and multispectral irrigation mapping74 are promising for isolating agricultural Hg inputs. Likewise, nighttime lights [e.g., from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)], alongside thermal anomalies from MODIS75, have the potential to correlate artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) activities with Hg deposition gradients.
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Identified Hg source information and microbial data can be employed to develop ML/DL-enhanced models, considering factors like modern-to-legacy Hg ratios, microbial community characteristics, and other potential key factors identified in future studies to better predict ecosystem sensitivity related to post-deposition processes. To address data scarcity in such an underexplored area, ML/DL should augment—not replace—process-based techniques, including but not limited to Hg isotope apportionment and metagenomics. Such assemblies will be able to quantify how changes in modern Hg inputs from specific sources affect microbial communities and their associated GHG emissions. Model outputs should also include potential trade-off curves (e.g., ΔGHG fluxes vs. ΔHg exposure risks) at various scales. These outputs are crucial to inform policy by clarifying co-benefits and conflicts, not to predetermine choices.
Step 3: Inform ecosystem- and region-specific mitigation strategies
Knowledge from Steps 1–2 empowers policymakers to design equitable, ecosystem-specific strategies, acknowledging that trade-offs require societal negotiation informed by science. A one-size-fits-all approach will likely be ineffective. Herein, we recommend:
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In non-sensitive (i.e., Hg-GHG decoupled) ecosystems where there is low Hg-GHG feedback risk, standard Hg mitigation strategies should be implemented, as required under the MC.
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In sensitive (i.e., Hg-GHG coupled) ecosystems, strategies require careful balancing of Hg-GHG interactions and explicit consideration of equity.
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For synergistic zones, Hg mitigation measures can be implemented at a normal or higher-than-normal pace to co-benefit climate and health. These measures, including deploying advanced pollution control technologies and promoting clean energy adoption, would effectively reduce atmospheric Hg concentrations and modern Hg input into local ecosystems, as well as reduce microbe-mediated GHG emissions.
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For antagonistic zones, phased Hg mitigation strategies paired with robust equity safeguards can be considered. A more gradual pace allows microbial communities to adapt to changes in modern Hg inputs resulting from Hg mitigation, potentially avoiding sharp GHG emission spikes. Safeguards must include rigorous health monitoring of the immediate health and ecological risks of Hg pollution in the affected zone and tangible livelihood support, potentially funded via carbon credit mechanisms, to tackle the disproportionate burden potentially placed on local communities (e.g., subsistence fishers).
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Crucially, this approach may inherently lead to a calculated delay in local Hg risk reduction to avoid counterproductive global climate impacts. This is a significant normative choice that must be made transparently by policymakers, weighing it against the precautionary principle and local impacts, equity and justice, and other sustainability goals such as impacts on biodiversity, food security, and cultural values. The choice between faster local Hg reduction and avoiding possible global GHG spikes involves competing values and risks. Science cannot resolve this choice; it can only illuminate the consequences. Policymakers must explicitly justify their prioritization, learning from analogous debates like sulfate aerosols76, where prioritizing immediate local health protection over transient global cooling was deemed ethically necessary15.
Conclusion
In this Perspective, we explore the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus, revealing how Hg mitigation strategies potentially influence microbe-mediated GHG dynamics in the face of the triple planetary crisis of environmental pollution, biodiversity loss, and climate change. Building upon these insights, we provide a science-based roadmap to identify sensitive ecosystems, quantify source-specific impacts, and inform—not prescribe—tailored strategies aimed at minimizing unintended consequences on ecosystems at local, regional, and global scales. Critically, it highlights the need for transparent societal deliberation on the normative trade-offs inherent in managing interconnected environmental crises.
More importantly, these advances will deepen our understanding of pollution-biodiversity-climate interactions and underscore microbes’ vital role in connecting ecosystems, climate, and planetary health77. These insights provide essential scientific support and serve as the key interlinkage for the synergistic implementation of the MC and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework10, which is currently hindered by a lack of actionable frameworks and understanding of these critical interlinkages.
The proposed roadmap could potentially be adapted to explore the impact of other globally relevant pollutants within the context of the triple planetary crisis of environmental pollution, biodiversity loss, and climate change. Evidence increasingly suggests that pollutants, such as plastics, may alter microbe-mediated biogeochemical cycles of major elements78,79. Expanding our understanding of the Hg-microbe-GHG nexus to include a broader pollutant-biodiversity-climate nexus will significantly aid in combating the triple planetary crisis. This effort hinges on comprehending the interconnections among environmental pollution, biodiversity loss, and climate change.
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Acknowledgements
This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.: 42525710 and 42107223).
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C.L. and H.Z. conceived the study. C.L., H.Z., M.W., and W.T. led the writing of the manuscript. M.W. and Q.Z. collected the data. C.L., H.Z., M.W., W.T., B.Y., A.S.L., A.P., M.S.B., Q.Z., P.L.E.B., Z.Y., B.F., J.C., Y.J., and H.H. contributed to data analysis and interpretation, reviewed and edited the manuscript. W.T. and H.Z. secured funding.
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Li, C., Wu, M., Tang, W. et al. Aligning global mercury mitigation with climate action. Nat Commun 16, 7826 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62176-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62176-0