Fig. 3: Propagation mechanisms among the pre-season heatwaves, pre-season droughts, and earlier DFS using a copula-based Bayesian framework based on satellite-derived datasets.
Black and red arrows in a–d represent the thresholds required for different types of droughts caused by heatwaves, or the thresholds for an earlier DFS triggered by heatwaves, or the thresholds for an earlier DFS caused by different types of droughts. Numbers in a–d represent average thresholds of potential propagation pathways. In a–d, we multiplied STImax and STImin by −1 to correlate their directions with drought indices. That is, the larger the negative value, the greater the severity of the heatwaves. e All the potential propagation pathways triggering an earlier DFS in a–d.
