Abstract
Viewing urban spatial structure from a three-dimensional (3D) perspective provides important insights for environmental sustainability. While existing studies mainly examine 3D built-up volume, the spatial distribution of vertical growth remains insufficiently understood. This study investigates centrality and intensity of vertical expansion in newly urbanized areas. Using multi-source remote sensing data, we develop a Centrality Index (CI) and an Intensity Index (II) to characterize 3D urban expansion and compare it with conventional two-dimensional (2D) measures. Results show that: (1) 3D expansion is generally more centralized than 2D expansion. (2) Vertical growth is stronger in the Global South; however, Global South cities outside China, especially in Africa, often demonstrate low 3D centrality. (3) 3D expansion patterns are closely associated with natural and socioeconomic conditions and display strong path dependency. As urbanization shifts toward Africa and South Asia, prevalent low-centrality patterns may improve land-use efficiency but increase commuting-related carbon emissions.
Data availability
The built-up data used in this study are available at [https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/datasets.php]; Urban boundary data [https://data-starcloud.pcl.ac.cn/zh/resource/14]; Population data [https://landscan.ornl.gov]; GDP data [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.dk1j0]; Road density data [https://www.globio.info/download-grip-dataset]; Data for calculating terrain relief [https://globalmaps.github.io/el.html#summary]; Data for calculating annual mean temperature [https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg]; Data for calculating governance level [https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/explorer] (Supplementary Table 4). Data for result analysis, centrality calculation, and main modeling are publicly accessible on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18314967.
Code availability
Codes for the main modeling and analysis process presented in this paper are publicly accessible on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18314967.
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Acknowledgements
The research was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFC3800201, Recipient: Y.L.).
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Y.L. raised the research idea and proposed the analytical framework. X.L. contributed to enhancing the conceptual design. Y.L. and X.Z. designed the methods, performed the analysis, and drafted the paper. M.H. discussed the results. Y.L., B.D., and X.L. revised the paper.
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Li, Y., Zhong, X., Derudder, B. et al. Global increases in built-up volume indicate more divergent and less dispersed urban expansion patterns. Nat Commun (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69766-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69766-6
