Fig. 7: Predictive power of post-nadir PSA increase.

Patient UM10003. The eight panels correspond to the indicated row numbers in the orthogonal design trial table (Table 3). Dark gray asterisks represent the “known” data points used to inform model parameters. Red asterisks indicate “unknown” data points that have not yet been incorporated into the model. The last gray asterisk represents the present time. The gray asterisk within a single circle denotes the clinically measured PSA nadir, and the red asterisk within two concentric circles marks the time of clinical failure. The yellow vertical dotted line represents the earliest predicted ADT failure time. The yellow shaded area indicates the 95% confidence interval during the period when treatment failure is predicted. The light gray shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval before therapy meets the failure criterion. Bar plots below each panel indicate probability that the patient will be determined to have progressed to ADT failure at each future clinical visit.