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Current and future global water scarcity intensifies when accounting for surface water quality

Nature Climate Change volume 14, pages 629–635 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

The inadequate availability of clean water presents systemic risks to human health, food production, energy generation and ecosystem functioning. Here we evaluate population exposure to current and future water scarcity (both excluding and including water quality) using a coupled global hydrological and surface water quality model. We find that 55% of the global population are currently exposed to clean water scarcity at least one month per year, compared with 47% considering water quantity aspects only. Exposure to clean water scarcity at least one month per year increases to 56–66% by the end of the century. Increases in future exposure are typically largest in developing countries—particularly in sub-Saharan Africa—driven by a combination of water quantity and quality aspects. Strong reductions in both anthropogenic water use and pollution are therefore necessary to minimize the impact of future clean water scarcity on humans and the environment.

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Fig. 1: Spatial distribution, seasonal patterns and drivers of current hotspots of and population exposure to water scarcity.
Fig. 2: Global population exposure to water scarcity under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.
Fig. 3: Global population exposure to water scarcity under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.
Fig. 4: Regional exposure to water scarcity and key drivers at the end of the twenty-first century under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

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Data availability

Output data from this study (that is, population exposure to water scarcity) per geographic region are available via Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24866310.v1 (ref. 53). Water quantity and quality data are available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7811612 (ref. 54).

Code availability

The coupled global hydrological model and water resources model (PCR-GLOBWB 2) and global surface water quality model (DynQual) are freely available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7932317 (ref. 55) and via GitHub at https://github.com/UU-Hydro/.

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Acknowledgements

E.R.J. and M.T.H.v.V. were financially supported by the Netherlands Scientific Organisation (NWO) by a VIDI grant (VI.Vidi.193.019). M.T.H.v.V. was also financially supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 101039426 B-WEX). E.R.J. acknowledges and thanks the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) for the grant that enabled us to use the national supercomputer Snellius (project no. EINF-3999).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

    Edward R. Jones, Marc F. P. Bierkens & Michelle T. H. van Vliet

  2. Unit Subsurface and Groundwater Systems, Deltares, Utrecht, the Netherlands

    Marc F. P. Bierkens

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Contributions

The study was designed by E.R.J., M.F.P.B. and M.T.H.v.V. Data processing, analysis and interpretation were led by E.R.J. in consultation with M.F.P.B. and M.T.H.v.V. E.R.J. led the paper writing, and all authors approved the paper.

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Correspondence to Edward R. Jones.

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Nature Climate Change thanks Ting Ma, Mesfin Mekonnen and Bridget Scanlon for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Population exposure to water scarcity in the East Asia & Pacific region under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

a) Number of people exposed to water scarcity from 2005–2100, based on indicators considering water quantity only (WS) and including water quality (WSq). Thick lines and thin lines display the annual average and monthly average exposure to water scarcity, respectively, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. b) Percentage of the population exposed to seasonal (that is at least one month per year) and year-round (>9 months per year) water scarcity from 2005–2100, as indicated by WS and WSq. Lines display the mean average exposure per year averaged over the five GCMs considered, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. c) Percentage of the population exposed to water scarcity in each month, as indicated by WS and WSq. Boxplots are made based on monthly exposure to water scarcity across all GCMs for a historical reference period (2005–2020) and under three global change scenarios at the end of the century (2081–2100).

Extended Data Fig. 2 Population exposure to water scarcity in the Eastern Europe & Central Asia region under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

a) Number of people exposed to water scarcity from 2005–2100, based on indicators considering water quantity only (WS) and including water quality (WSq). Thick lines and thin lines display the annual average and monthly average exposure to water scarcity, respectively, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. b) Percentage of the population exposed to seasonal (that is at least one month per year) and year-round (>9 months per year) water scarcity from 2005–2100, as indicated by WS and WSq. Lines display the mean average exposure per year averaged over the five GCMs considered, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. c) Percentage of the population exposed to water scarcity in each month, as indicated by WS and WSq. Boxplots are made based on monthly exposure to water scarcity across all GCMs for a historical reference period (2005–2020) and under three global change scenarios at the end of the century (2081–2100).

Extended Data Fig. 3 Population exposure to water scarcity in the Latin America & Caribbean region under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

a) Number of people exposed to water scarcity from 2005–2100, based on indicators considering water quantity only (WS) and including water quality (WSq). Thick lines and thin lines display the annual average and monthly average exposure to water scarcity, respectively, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. b) Percentage of the population exposed to seasonal (that is at least one month per year) and year-round (>9 months per year) water scarcity from 2005–2100, as indicated by WS and WSq. Lines display the mean average exposure per year averaged over the five GCMs considered, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. c) Percentage of the population exposed to water scarcity in each month, as indicated by WS and WSq. Boxplots are made based on monthly exposure to water scarcity across all GCMs for a historical reference period (2005–2020) and under three global change scenarios at the end of the century (2081–2100).

Extended Data Fig. 4 Population exposure to water scarcity in the Middle East & North Africa region under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

a) Number of people exposed to water scarcity from 2005–2100, based on indicators considering water quantity only (WS) and including water quality (WSq). Thick lines and thin lines display the annual average and monthly average exposure to water scarcity, respectively, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. b) Percentage of the population exposed to seasonal (that is at least one month per year) and year-round (>9 months per year) water scarcity from 2005–2100, as indicated by WS and WSq. Lines display the mean average exposure per year averaged over the five GCMs considered, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. c) Percentage of the population exposed to water scarcity in each month, as indicated by WS and WSq. Boxplots are made based on monthly exposure to water scarcity across all GCMs for a historical reference period (2005–2020) and under three global change scenarios at the end of the century (2081–2100).

Extended Data Fig. 5 Population exposure to water scarcity in the North America region under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

a) Number of people exposed to water scarcity from 2005–2100, based on indicators considering water quantity only (WS) and including water quality (WSq). Thick lines and thin lines display the annual average and monthly average exposure to water scarcity, respectively, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. b) Percentage of the population exposed to seasonal (that is at least one month per year) and year-round (>9 months per year) water scarcity from 2005–2100, as indicated by WS and WSq. Lines display the mean average exposure per year averaged over the five GCMs considered, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. c) Percentage of the population exposed to water scarcity in each month, as indicated by WS and WSq. Boxplots are made based on monthly exposure to water scarcity across all GCMs for a historical reference period (2005–2020) and under three global change scenarios at the end of the century (2081–2100).

Extended Data Fig. 6 Population exposure to water scarcity in the Southern Asia region under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

a) Number of people exposed to water scarcity from 2005–2100, based on indicators considering water quantity only (WS) and including water quality (WSq). Thick lines and thin lines display the annual average and monthly average exposure to water scarcity, respectively, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. b) Percentage of the population exposed to seasonal (that is at least one month per year) and year-round (>9 months per year) water scarcity from 2005–2100, as indicated by WS and WSq. Lines display the mean average exposure per year averaged over the five GCMs considered, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. c) Percentage of the population exposed to water scarcity in each month, as indicated by WS and WSq. Boxplots are made based on monthly exposure to water scarcity across all GCMs for a historical reference period (2005–2020) and under three global change scenarios at the end of the century (2081–2100).

Extended Data Fig. 7 Population exposure to water scarcity in the Sub-Saharan Africa region under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

a) Number of people exposed to water scarcity from 2005–2100, based on indicators considering water quantity only (WS) and including water quality (WSq). Thick lines and thin lines display the annual average and monthly average exposure to water scarcity, respectively, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. b) Percentage of the population exposed to seasonal (that is at least one month per year) and year-round (>9 months per year) water scarcity from 2005–2100, as indicated by WS and WSq. Lines display the mean average exposure per year averaged over the five GCMs considered, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. c) Percentage of the population exposed to water scarcity in each month, as indicated by WS and WSq. Boxplots are made based on monthly exposure to water scarcity across all GCMs for a historical reference period (2005–2020) and under three global change scenarios at the end of the century (2081–2100).

Extended Data Fig. 8 Population exposure to water scarcity in the Western Europe region under uncertain climate and socio-economic change.

a) Number of people exposed to water scarcity from 2005–2100, based on indicators considering water quantity only (WS) and including water quality (WSq). Thick lines and thin lines display the annual average and monthly average exposure to water scarcity, respectively, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. b) Percentage of the population exposed to seasonal (that is at least one month per year) and year-round (>9 months per year) water scarcity from 2005–2100, as indicated by WS and WSq. Lines display the mean average exposure per year averaged over the five GCMs considered, while shaded areas represent uncertainty arising from variations in GCM simulations as ±1 s.d. c) Percentage of the population exposed to water scarcity in each month, as indicated by WS and WSq. Boxplots are made based on monthly exposure to water scarcity across all GCMs for a historical reference period (2005–2020) and under three global change scenarios at the end of the century (2081–2100).

Extended Data Table 1 Future population exposure to water scarcity
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Jones, E.R., Bierkens, M.F.P. & van Vliet, M.T.H. Current and future global water scarcity intensifies when accounting for surface water quality. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 629–635 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02007-0

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