Fig. 1: Observed and projected crossing of the 1.5 °C global warming threshold.
From: Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold
a, ERA5 global temperature anomalies (≥1.5 °C in purple). The histogram shows the distribution of time between first occurrence of 12 months above 1.5 °C and long-term threshold exceedance (CMIP6 SSP 2-4.5; 26 members) superimposed over the observed occurrence date. b, Histograms of year of occurrence of Paris Agreement threshold crossing (grey) and first occurrence of 12 months above 1.5 °C (purple). In a and b vertical dashed (dotted) lines indicate the median (5th and 95th percentiles). c, Probability that the first occurrence of n consecutive months above 1.5 °C coincides with the Paris Agreement threshold already having been breached. Horizontal dotted lines show probabilities for 12 consecutive months.
