Fig. 5: Risk assessment of critical threshold temperatures and respective sea-level commitments.
From: Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming
Shown for each Antarctic ice catchment basin is the critical threshold temperature (in °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels), that is, the one-degree interval in which the strongest ice loss occurs, versus the sea-level commitment of the tipped basin, given by the respective equilibrium ice volume loss within the critical temperature interval (metres sea-level equivalent, m SLE). The size of the circles corresponds to the initial ice volume of the basin and the colour to the ice-sheet region. The background shading denotes the associated relative risk level, given as the product of tipping likelihood (distance from threshold temperature) and tipping impact (sea-level commitment from tipping). Coloured bars on the right show the projected global mean surface temperature warming in 2081–2100 relative to the pre-industrial period, given by the median (dark) and 5–95% confidence interval (light), respectively, for five illustrative IPCC emission scenarios5. The observed present-day warming is shown in purple. AP, Antarctic Peninsula; EAIS, East Antarctic Ice Sheet; WAIS, West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
