Extended Data Fig. 4: Model sensitivity to parameter variations (based on the quasi-static experiment).
From: Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming
Sea-level relevant ice volume (in metres sea-level equivalent, m SLE) as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) change, based on the quasi-static experiment (using a warming rate of 0.0001 °C yr−1 above pre-industrial levels), showing the model sensitivity to various model parameters. The thick dark blue line shows the reference simulation. a, Sensitivity to variations in upper mantle viscosity η in the Earth-deformation model. b, Sensitivity to including the elastic component of the Earth-deformation model (elastic vs. non-elastic response). c, Sensitivity to parameters of the positive degree-day (PDD) surface melt scheme, varying the melt coefficients for snow fs and ice fi, and standard deviation of the PDD distribution σ. d, Sensitivity to the precipitation scaling factor α that relates precipitation changes to atmospheric temperature and ice surface elevation changes, respectively. In all panels, the light blue bars (with respect to the right-hand axis) indicate, for each full degree of warming, the temperature difference – that is, the ‘shift’ in GMT – relative to the reference simulation yielding the same ice volume for the respective parameter variation (in °C).
