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Long-term warming reduces fish biomass, but heatwaves shift it

Nature Ecology & Evolution (2026)Cite this article

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Abstract

Long-term ocean warming, interannual temperature variability and marine heatwaves pose serious but poorly quantified threats to marine species. Here, to quantify and isolate their individual effects, we analysed 702,037 estimates of biomass change across 33,990 fish populations (1,566 species) between 1993 and 2021, covering major Northern Hemisphere basins. Long-term warming was associated with an annual biomass decline of up to 19.8%. However, on shorter timescales, warmer years and marine heatwaves were linked to sharp biomass losses of up to 43.4% in populations at the warm edge of the species’ range and biomass increases of up to 176% at the cold edge. Accounting for these edge-dependent ‘winners and losers’ in response to long- and short-term warming will be essential to avoid overexploiting transient biomass gains. Ultimately, management strategies must plan for the biomass loss expected under continued ocean warming.

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Fig. 1: Biological and climatic coverage.
Fig. 2: Short-term climate change impacts on fish biomass.
Fig. 3: Long-term warming impacts on fish biomass.
Fig. 4: The impact of warmer years on the biomass trends of the European sprat (S. sprattus).

Data availability

All input data used in this study are freely available from public repositories. The fish biomass data are available through the FISHGLOB database and the EU Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries Independent Survey Data. Climatic data were derived from the GLORY model of the Copernicus Marine Service, and species occurrence records are available through GBIF. All processed data and model outputs generated during this study are available via Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30061603 (ref. 96).

Code availability

The code used in this work is available via Figshare at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.30061603 (ref. 96).

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by funding from the Tender of the Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge to the CSIC through project 20233TE007 to M.B.A. In addition, this work was supported by the Planning and Budgeting Committee of the Council for Higher Education Program for Outstanding Post-Doctoral Researchers in Israel to S.C. We extend our sincere gratitude to the field researchers, vessel crews and data managers whose dedication to collecting and maintaining survey data made this study possible. We specifically thank the curators and contributors of the FISHGLOB database and the EU Mediterranean and Black Sea Fisheries Independent Survey Data for making these datasets publicly available. We also acknowledge the Copernicus Marine Service for providing free access to their products and GBIF for facilitating access to species occurrence records.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Madrid, Spain

    Shahar Chaikin & Miguel B. Araújo

  2. Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Biología, Cra 30 45 02, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Bogotá, Bogotá, Colombia

    Juan David González-Trujillo

  3. Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development (MED), and Global Change and Sustainability Institute (CHANGE), Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal

    Miguel B. Araújo

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  1. Shahar Chaikin
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  2. Juan David González-Trujillo
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Contributions

S.C. and M.B.A. conceived and planned this study. S.C. and J.D.G.T. prepared the data. S.C. designed and performed the analyses and created the figures. S.C. led the writing with substantial contributions from M.B.A. M.B.A. supervised this study and contributed financially. All authors discussed the results, commented on the manuscript and approved the final submitted version.

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Correspondence to Shahar Chaikin.

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Population-level responses and GBIF DOIs

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Chaikin, S., González-Trujillo, J.D. & Araújo, M.B. Long-term warming reduces fish biomass, but heatwaves shift it. Nat Ecol Evol (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03013-5

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