Fig. 1: HIW estimates.
From: Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship
a, HadCRUT5 global temperature anomalies relative to their 1961–1990 mean6, estimated GMST change and HIW (Methods). b, Law Dome ice core5 and Mauna Loa18 atmospheric CO2 concentrations. c, The relationship between increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration above its pre-1700 baseline and the HadCRUT5 global temperature anomaly, WLS regression fit and HIW estimates (Methods). d, Median HIW estimates for 2023 from ref. 16 along with the regression-based estimates from this study. Here the regression-based estimates are also shown baselined to 1850–1900 and without the CO2 baseline uncertainty to be comparable to those in ref. 16. All uncertainties are expressed as 95th percentile ranges. Regression uncertainties are estimated from N = 104 samples (Methods).
